Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) All peripheral economies narrowed their budget deficits in October, but Portugal is expected to miss its target for 2014 as a whole. 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will lower oil prices do the ECB’s job for it? The recent fall in oil prices will have some modest positive effects on the euro-zone economy. But it does not preclude the need for the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide more policy support. 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How will other European central banks react to ECB QE? The likely introduction of “full-blown” quantitative easing by the ECB may well put pressure on other European central banks to follow suit and introduce their own unconventional measures in order to... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How will other European central banks react to ECB QE? The likely introduction of “full-blown” quantitative easing by the ECB may well put pressure on other European central banks to follow suit and introduce their own unconventional measures in order to... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) October’s euro-zone monetary data highlighted the sluggish nature of the recovery in the region’s banking sector and will help to maintain the pressure on the ECB to provide further stimulus. 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What will ECB QE do to core euro-zone bond yields? An ECB quantitative easing (QE) programme will probably not be decisive enough to prompt a rise in inflation expectations like that which lifted US Treasury yields during the Fed’s bouts of QE... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Troika call to pay taxes faster may hurt Greek recovery The Greek Government does not appear to have been too rattled by last month’s market turmoil, sticking to its budget plan despite opposition from the Troika. But it may come under pressure to seek... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Juncker’s investment plan is unlikely to amount to much EC President Jean-Claude Juncker’s proposal for a €300bn EU investment programme will probably do little more than shift existing funds around the economy with little or no positive impact on growth. 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Weaker Portuguese exports show need for more reform The renewed slowdown in the growth of Portuguese exports in recent quarters has underlined the need for the country to implement further decisive reforms in order to lift growth from the anaemic rates... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Which assets should the ECB buy? An effective ECB QE programme would probably involve large-scale purchases of higher-yielding and long-term debt, including both government bonds and private sector assets. But we suspect that the... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Falling oil prices to tip the euro-zone into deflation The recent drop in oil prices looks set to tip euro-zone CPI inflation into negative territory over the coming months, increasing the risk of a prolonged and damaging bout of deflation. 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Debt still a drag on Dutch household spending The improvement in Dutch consumer confidence and upturn in the housing market suggest that the near stagnation of consumer spending in Q3 need not be a sign of things to come. But continued fiscal... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece exits recession but big challenges remain While it is welcome news that the Greek economy has finally started growing again after seven years of recession, the recent GDP figures have not solved two of its, arguably biggest, problems: its... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is QE already priced in? Markets have probably at least partially priced in the prospect of QE in the euro-zone, suggesting that the ECB will have to unveil a bold programme to prompt a further significant market reaction. 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will negative yields render ECB QE useless? Any optimism surrounding the ECB’s progress towards QE has been dulled by concerns that the already low level of yields on many assets will make the policy ineffective. But there is still scope for QE... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB’s Draghi signals QE is imminent Today’s statement from Mr Draghi that ECB staff are preparing further monetary policy measures provided the firmest support yet for our long-held view that the Bank will implement full-blown... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
