Europe Economics Update ECB highlights limits to its support The first ever publication of ECB minutes confirmed that support for the new QE programme was not unanimous, suggesting that its scale will remain limited. The account, together with the Bank’s... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French structural reform efforts welcome but insufficient The French Government’s decision yesterday to force its reform package through the lower house of Parliament showed a welcome political commitment to implement growth-boosting measures. But the bill... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What hope of a Greek deal now? As negotiations over Greece’s bailout stalled last night, the two sides seemed as far apart as ever. A deal still seems possible, but it might require a time-consuming Greek referendum. And in the... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How would Greece leave the euro? With euro-zone leaders struggling to reach a workable solution to Greece’s debt problems, the chances of a Greek exit from the currency union have risen. In 2012, Capital Economics won the Wolfson... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank follows the negative trend The Swedish Riksbank today became the latest central bank to respond to the threat of persistent deflation by pushing interest rates into negative territory and launching a quantitative easing... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank follows the negative trend The Swedish Riksbank today became the latest central bank to respond to the threat of persistent deflation by pushing interest rates into negative territory and launching a quantitative easing... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Does Greece still need a weaker currency? Greece’s apparent improvement in competitiveness and recent economic recovery might suggest that it no longer requires a weaker currency and so would have little to gain from leaving the euro-zone... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What can the Eurogroup do about Greece? Tomorrow’s meeting of euro-zone finance ministers (the “Eurogroup”) takes place against a background of extreme urgency to meet Greece’s near-term financing needs. While some solution appears possible... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can capital controls save Greece? The Greek Government may need to resort to capital controls to prevent the flow of deposits from its banks, particularly if the ECB withdraws access to central bank funding altogether. But once the... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Turkey Ind. Prod. (Dec.) & Czech CPI (Jan.) The rebound in Turkish industrial production growth to 2.6% y/y in December provides an encouraging sign that the economy may have emerged from its recent slump. But even so, growth over Q4 as a whole... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.) The latest fiscal data suggest that the peripheral economies continued to strengthen their budget positions at the end of last year. But many look set to have missed their 2014 targets and Greece’s... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can GDP-linked bonds solve Greece’s debt problems? The proposed plan to exchange some of Greece’s current debts for bonds linked to the performance of the economy has some attractions. But we’re not convinced at this stage that it can make a material... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek bank collapse would probably trigger “Grexit” The Greek banking sector is once again buckling under the weight of substantial deposit outflows and market concerns about the country’s future inside the euro-zone. There is a significant risk that... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) December’s euro-zone monetary data showed that credit conditions continued to improve at the end of last year. But the recovery is still at an early stage, highlighting the need for the ECB’s latest... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Restructuring can’t transform Greece’s debt outlook Expectations that Greece’s fiscal problems can be addressed by a “restructuring” of its debts overlook the fact that most of the viable adjustments have already been made. Only a substantial write... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rise of populist parties unlikely to end austerity Syriza’s victory in the Greek general election may increase the influence of anti-austerity parties elsewhere in the euro-zone, most notably Podemos in Spain. But resistance from Germany seems set to... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
