Europe Economics Update Iceland’s Sedlabanki holds rates but will hike later this year Iceland’s central bank left its main interest rates on hold today as it waits to judge the outcome of the ongoing wage negotiations. But with labour market tensions growing and the Sedlabanki raising... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Krona’s rise forces Sweden’s Riksbank to ease policy again The Swedish Riksbank unexpectedly loosened monetary policy further today, citing the deflationary risks from the stronger krona, and said it was prepared to do more if needed. With the ECB’s QE likely... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland’s Sedlabanki holds rates but will hike later this year Iceland’s central bank left its main interest rates on hold today as it waits to judge the outcome of the ongoing wage negotiations. But with labour market tensions growing and the Sedlabanki raising... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update France will struggle to meet its new fiscal targets, again While France has been given an extra two years to meet its new budget targets set by Brussels, we think that it will still struggle to achieve the necessary fiscal consolidation given France’s... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How low will the euro go? Rising expectations for US interest rates and an escalation of the Greek crisis could push the euro down to parity against the US dollar and beyond. But we expect it to stage a partial recovery in... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is German wage growth finally taking off? The latest data on German wage growth suggest that pay is finally beginning to respond to the long labour market recovery. With deflation offering a further boost to real wage growth, we expect the... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will QE hit the buffers before the job is done? Concerns that the ECB will struggle to find enough willing sellers of assets to implement its quantitative easing programme may be wide of the mark. But limits set by the Bank itself imply little... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Start of ECB QE won’t herald strong recovery As the ECB’s quantitative easing programme starts today, it already seems to be having a more positive impact than we had envisaged. But here we explain why we maintain our view that the policy will... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB leaves onus on politicians to rescue Greece While ECB President Mario Draghi struck a cautiously optimistic tone today, we doubt that the Bank’s quantitative easing programme will prompt a meaningful economic recovery or eradicate the threat of... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) After consolidating their fiscal positions in 2014, the peripheral economies had a mixed start to 2015. Ireland and Italy both fared comparatively well but Portugal and Greece struggled. 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) January’s euro-zone monetary data showed that credit conditions were healthy at the start of the year, suggesting the ECB’s policy stimulus is already having an effect. 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has the tide turned for the Danish krone? The recent sharp drop in the Danish krone back to its central rate against the euro suggests that the Danish Nationalbank has been successful in preserving its currency peg. But the upward pressure on... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Has the tide turned for the Danish krone? The recent sharp drop in the Danish krone back to its central rate against the euro suggests that the Danish Nationalbank has been successful in preserving its currency peg. But the upward pressure on... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Cyprus bailout suspension maintains exit risk Struggles to implement a foreclosures bill and the associated suspension of the Cypriot bailout highlight that exit risks are not confined to Greece. Admittedly, the risk of a near-term “Cyxit” is... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek concessions leave deal on shaky ground In this Update , we analyse the latest agreement between Greece and the Eurogroup to assess how much ground the two sides have won on the key issues. It is clear that Greece has made huge concessions... 23rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update A parallel currency is not the solution for Greece The idea that Greece could introduce a parallel domestic currency to improve its competitiveness while still honouring its international debts is not the solution to the country’s problems. Indeed, if... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
