Europe Economics Update Will QE hit the buffers before the job is done? Concerns that the ECB will struggle to find enough willing sellers of assets to implement its quantitative easing programme may be wide of the mark. But limits set by the Bank itself imply little... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Start of ECB QE won’t herald strong recovery As the ECB’s quantitative easing programme starts today, it already seems to be having a more positive impact than we had envisaged. But here we explain why we maintain our view that the policy will... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB leaves onus on politicians to rescue Greece While ECB President Mario Draghi struck a cautiously optimistic tone today, we doubt that the Bank’s quantitative easing programme will prompt a meaningful economic recovery or eradicate the threat of... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) After consolidating their fiscal positions in 2014, the peripheral economies had a mixed start to 2015. Ireland and Italy both fared comparatively well but Portugal and Greece struggled. 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) January’s euro-zone monetary data showed that credit conditions were healthy at the start of the year, suggesting the ECB’s policy stimulus is already having an effect. 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has the tide turned for the Danish krone? The recent sharp drop in the Danish krone back to its central rate against the euro suggests that the Danish Nationalbank has been successful in preserving its currency peg. But the upward pressure on... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Has the tide turned for the Danish krone? The recent sharp drop in the Danish krone back to its central rate against the euro suggests that the Danish Nationalbank has been successful in preserving its currency peg. But the upward pressure on... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Cyprus bailout suspension maintains exit risk Struggles to implement a foreclosures bill and the associated suspension of the Cypriot bailout highlight that exit risks are not confined to Greece. Admittedly, the risk of a near-term “Cyxit” is... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek concessions leave deal on shaky ground In this Update , we analyse the latest agreement between Greece and the Eurogroup to assess how much ground the two sides have won on the key issues. It is clear that Greece has made huge concessions... 23rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update A parallel currency is not the solution for Greece The idea that Greece could introduce a parallel domestic currency to improve its competitiveness while still honouring its international debts is not the solution to the country’s problems. Indeed, if... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB highlights limits to its support The first ever publication of ECB minutes confirmed that support for the new QE programme was not unanimous, suggesting that its scale will remain limited. The account, together with the Bank’s... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French structural reform efforts welcome but insufficient The French Government’s decision yesterday to force its reform package through the lower house of Parliament showed a welcome political commitment to implement growth-boosting measures. But the bill... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What hope of a Greek deal now? As negotiations over Greece’s bailout stalled last night, the two sides seemed as far apart as ever. A deal still seems possible, but it might require a time-consuming Greek referendum. And in the... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How would Greece leave the euro? With euro-zone leaders struggling to reach a workable solution to Greece’s debt problems, the chances of a Greek exit from the currency union have risen. In 2012, Capital Economics won the Wolfson... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank follows the negative trend The Swedish Riksbank today became the latest central bank to respond to the threat of persistent deflation by pushing interest rates into negative territory and launching a quantitative easing... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank follows the negative trend The Swedish Riksbank today became the latest central bank to respond to the threat of persistent deflation by pushing interest rates into negative territory and launching a quantitative easing... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read