Europe Economics Update One last hike to come at Norges Bank Despite the recent paring back of interest rate expectations across Europe, we think Norges Bank is likely to go ahead with one final 25bp hike next week – taking the policy rate to a peak of 4.50% –... 7th December 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Swedish krona’s decade-long fall may be ending Our view about relative economic and interest rate prospects in Sweden and the euro-zone suggests that the Swedish krona’s recent rebound may prove durable. In fact, given how far below “fair value”... 4th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greek debt ratio will keep falling While there have been growing concerns about public finances in some euro-zone countries recently, prospects for Greece’s debt are quite bright. Steady economic growth, large primary surpluses and low... 4th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Key risks for 2024 In this Global Economics Update, we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank likely to cut rates in Q2 next year Despite the Riksbank Executive Board insisting that it might raise interest rates again in the coming months, we would be very surprised if it does so. Instead, we think the next move will be a rate... 23rd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Fiscal health and the outlook for the euro-zone’s bond markets We continue to forecast a small fall in euro-zone yield spreads over Bunds in the next year or so. However, rising risks to the upside in recent months and differences in fiscal positions between... 22nd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update How worrying are France’s public finances? The EU’s criticism of French fiscal policy is not in itself a major concern. But France’s debt-to-GDP ratio may well rise over time rather than declining as the government intends. The key problem is... 21st November 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank hike back on amid strong price pressures Recent developments will have given policymakers at Norges Bank food for thought ahead of December’s interest rate decision. While we had initially rejected the central bank’s guidance that it would... 16th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to buck the trend and hike again While the world’s major central banks now appear to have ended their tightening cycles, we think the Riksbank will raise its policy rate by 25bp again next week, to 4.25%, because of the strength of... 16th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update European banks weathering CRE crash Despite the steepest crash in commercial property values on record, the credit risk and asset quality of European banks’ commercial real estate lending is holding up well. Further declines in values... 8th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Construction activity will continue to decline Activity in the euro-zone’s construction sector is declining and the outlook is poor. The latest surveys suggest that construction output will decline by up to 2% q/q in Q4. 7th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will Italian households save the day? Italian households have been the main net purchasers of Italian government bonds recently and we suspect that they will buy a lot more in the coming months. However, the sustainability of Italy’s debt... 7th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Putting Italy’s debt dynamics into context Italy stands out in the euro-zone for its particularly worrying public debt dynamics. The governments of most euro-zone countries could stabilise their debt ratios while running primary budget... 6th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Strong wage growth to delay ECB rate cuts Wage growth looks to finally be slowing in the euro-zone amid weaker economic growth and falling inflation, but it remains too high for comfort. As a result, we think the ECB will wait until a more... 3rd November 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Four things of note on the SNB this week The SNB has been uncharacteristically active this week, making a string of announcements about monetary policy, its balance sheet, minimum reserve requirement and lessons from the Credit Suisse... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank tightening cycle probably at an end We think that the decision today by Norges Bank to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.25% signals the end of its tightening cycle. Contrary to the Bank’s communication, we do not expect a hike in... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
