Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone turning Japanese? There is a real and growing danger that the euro-zone enters a Japanese-style bout of flat or falling prices. But even a prolonged period of low positive inflation would seriously hamper the... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is France resolving its problems? France is beginning to tackle its long-standing economic problems. Although a weak labour market and additional fiscal austerity will weigh on the economy this year, growth should pick up in 2015... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Does Portugal need more help? The chances of Portugal following in Ireland’s footsteps and making a “clean break” from its bailout have recently grown. Nonetheless, we think that it may still need further loans and some form of... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Banking union: a step rather than a leap forward The euro-zone’s proposed banking union will help to strengthen the region’s financial system. But the benefits will be slow to feed into the real economy. And the current framework for banking union... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How strong can the euro-zone recovery get? Although the euro-zone has tentatively emerged from its long and damaging recession, we remain sceptical that it will expand at a fast enough pace to reduce unemployment significantly, lower the... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How much more help will Greece need? The situation in Greece has improved dramatically over the past year. But while the second bail-out has ensured that the public finances are in a better position than they were, Greece’s public debt... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will Denmark remain the Nordic laggard? Denmark is finally dragging itself out of its long slump. Households have started to deleverage, exporters have become more competitive and banks are now stronger. But given that these adjustments... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone enjoy a "creditless recovery"? The recent pick-up in the euro-zone economy stands in marked contrast to the accelerating contraction in bank credit. Given the importance of banks to the region, a “creditless recovery” will not be... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Assessing two key risks to the Swiss economy We think that the continued strength of the franc will weigh heavily on Switzerland’s exports for some time yet. But fears of overheating in the property market seem overdone, implying that a brighter... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Assessing two key risks to the Swiss economy We think that the continued strength of the franc will weigh heavily on Switzerland’s exports for some time yet. But fears of overheating in the property market seem overdone, implying that a brighter... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Does Europe still face default? Despite the euro-zone economy’s recent recovery, likely constraints on future rates of economic growth and limits to further austerity mean that more of the region’s economies could yet choose, or be... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is Spain finally getting its casa in order? Spain has begun to resolve some of its deep economic problems and its recession has eased. But the strong recovery needed to lower unemployment dramatically and ensure that public sector debt does not... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The sinking Dutchman: slump in consumption to deepen By 2014, the Netherlands will have seen an unprecedented fall in household spending. The resulting weakness in the Dutch economy will undermine attempts to address euro-zone imbalances, while... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the recovery in the euro-zone business surveys the real deal? The rise in euro-zone GDP in Q2, coupled with the improvements in the key business surveys, confirms that a turning point in the business cycle has been reached. But these developments do not... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has Ireland really found the escape route? Ireland has been widely hailed as a “poster boy” for the euro-zone’s austerity driven crisis response. But the major challenges still facing the economy undermine the view that the country has forged... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has the euro led to convergence or divergence? The formation of the single currency has prompted many of the euro-zone economies’ nominal economic variables, such as inflation, to become more similar. But real economic variables, such as the... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
