Europe Economics Focus Will Greek debt ever be sustainable? The immediate risks surrounding Greece have receded once again, with the likely completion of its first review today set to trigger payment of its next loan tranche early next week. But our analysis... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Do negative ECB interest rates lead to higher saving? We disagree with recent suggestions that negative central bank policy rates encourage households to increase their savings, thereby reducing demand and weighing on inflation. In fact, the opposite... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is Europe heading back into crisis? With the recovery in the euro-zone economy set to slow and the peripheral countries still facing a Herculean task to address their fiscal problems, there is a danger that Europe’s debt crisis will... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Italy’s recovery continue? After years of recession, the Italian economy returned to growth last year and further policy support could see the recovery pick up slightly in 2016. But there has been little improvement in the... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone almost free from austerity? The shift away from growth-sapping austerity in the euro-zone is encouraging. But while fiscal policy may no longer be a drag on economic growth, the planned loosening is unlikely to provide a... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What inflation rate is the ECB really targeting? Despite its latest policy loosening, the ECB’s behaviour over recent years has been consistent with an inflation objective of closer to 1% than 2%. This has depressed economic growth and increased the... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone weather the global headwinds? The euro-zone has proved relatively resilient in the face of global headwinds, but the region still has to contend with significant domestic problems. And with fiscal policy unlikely to provide a big... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What are the prospects for core Europe? With the periphery’s problems far from over, hopes for the euro-zone’s future rest with the core countries. But neither Germany nor France seem set for an economic transformation and the fiscal union... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the Greek crisis finally over? This Focus takes a detailed look at the outlook for Greece after the implementation of its third bailout and concludes that the country’s six-year crisis is far from over. Indeed, a Grexit is still... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has internal devaluation worked for Ireland? Since the financial crisis, internal devaluation appears to have provided only a modest boost to Ireland’s trade balance. More important to the economic recovery has been the pick-up in domestic... 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will labour reforms get France working again? France’s Government has finally started to tackle the country’s weak labour market. But we are sceptical that the reforms so far will be sufficient and think that more ambitious measures will be... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How fast can Spain grow? The relief rally in Chinese equities prompted by additional policy stimulus has turned global sentiment around, but a sustained recovery in commodity prices will probably require hard evidence that... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Why hasn’t the German recovery taken off? Hopes that Germany would drive a strong euro-zone recovery have faded as subdued demand for its exports has offset the boost from a weaker euro. This trend is set to continue. And as the consumer... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Italy’s recovery: lessons from Iberia Spain’s and Portugal’s recoveries offer some hope for Italy, the periphery’s laggard. But Italy’s exports are still too uncompetitive and its firms too unprofitable to mimic the export and investment... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Investment won’t drive a strong euro-zone recovery The euro-zone’s fledgling economic upturn has so far been driven largely by the short-term boost to consumer spending from lower oil prices and weak inflation. If it is to be sustained, the biggest... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has the ECB saved the euro-zone again? After saving the day with its pledge to “do whatever it takes” in 2012, the ECB has arguably now brought on a recovery with its quantitative easing programme. But we expect the policy’s effects to... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
