Europe Economics Focus Spain’s economy will slow but continue to outperform Spain’s period of very strong growth has come to an end. Nevertheless, the latest data suggest that in the run-up to this weekend’s election, it is growing at a decent pace. And there still appears to... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Swiss pivot towards Asia reduces reliance on euro-zone The Swiss economy will not be immune to weak growth in the euro-zone over the coming years, but rising demand from Asia and the increased importance of sectors that are relatively insensitive to the... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Italy at risk of perma-recession Over the next ten years, we think that Italy’s economy will fail to grow because productivity growth will remain weak and total employment will fall. As a consequence, the public debt ratio will... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How will the ECB respond to a recession? The next euro-zone recession is likely to begin before the ECB has raised interest rates from the “zero lower bound”. When it happens, we think the Bank will resume its asset purchase programme – but... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What a no-deal Brexit would mean for Ireland The latest twists in the Brexit saga suggest to us that the UK is most likely to stay in the EU beyond 29th March and leave later in the year with some kind of deal. If so, we think Ireland’s GDP... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus No end in sight to “lowflation” in Switzerland After almost five years of deflation, consumer prices are finally rising in Switzerland. But much of this has reflected higher energy costs, while underlying price pressures are still very weak. We... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone industrial slowdown to weigh on growth Euro-zone industrial production has slowed surprisingly sharply this year as producers have suffered from an investment-led global slowdown and an appreciation of the trade-weighted exchange rate... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is euro-zone inflation set to take off? Germany is the only major euro-zone economy where underlying inflation looks set to rise meaningfully in the next year or so. But even there, inflation is likely to remain lower than in major... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone’s recovery too good to last? Fears that the euro-zone’s recovery is going into reverse seem overdone. Weakness in Q1 related partly to temporary factors, the effects of Italian political turmoil have been contained and prospects... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will Italy’s new government cause a crisis? The policies of the two parties likely to form Italy’s next government have understandably caused concern. In the near term, we actually think that they would provide a modest boost to the economy... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How will Germany fare under its new Government? The new German Government plans a fiscal boost equivalent to around 0.4% of GDP per year during its term. Increased spending on child benefits, pensions and refugee integration will support consumer... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will productivity growth start to pick up? The weakness of euro-zone productivity growth since the global financial crisis can in part be attributed to cyclical factors. As these factors reverse, there is scope for economic growth to remain... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus TARGET2 imbalances highlight euro-zone’s continued problems The large imbalances in the euro-zone’s TARGET2 payments system indicate that all is still not quite right in the region. There are some good reasons to expect the imbalances to narrow again over the... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How big a threat is Italy’s election? Italy’s general election on Sunday 4th March seems likely to result in a government that pushes for a small fiscal stimulus, largely centred on tax cuts. But we doubt that this would provide much of a... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone’s trade imbalances are just in remission The peripheral euro-zone countries have improved their competitiveness and eliminated their big current account deficits. But we think that they will struggle to maintain this improvement. And at the... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Iceland: What went right and what might go wrong? Icelandic growth is set to hold up well with tourism booming despite the strength of the króna and with the financial imbalances that caused the previous crisis largely resolved. But inflation is a... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
