Europe Economics Focus Global asset prices at risk from higher Japanese rates In this Focus we argue that monetary tightening in Japan is a potential trigger for a sharp correction in bond markets and other asset prices in the West. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to start to... 16th February 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Are US Bonds Over-valued? Our analysis suggests that US bonds are currently overvalued, with ten year bond yields around 0.5- 1.0% below long-term sustainable levels. There are two key factors underpinning this conclusion. 31st January 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The rising dollar – what’s driving it and will it continue? The rebound in the dollar is looking increasingly over-extended. Shifting interest rate differentials are still the most common explanation of recent dollar moves against the euro. But these cannot... 23rd November 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Where will euro-zone rates peak? ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said little new in his testimony to the European parliament today. But whether the ECB begins to raise rates in December (as now seems likely) or early in 2006, there... 21st November 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the ECB keeping government bond yield spreads low? A number of commentators have argued that the ECB is inadvertently keeping euro-zone government bond yield spreads artificially low because of the way it provides liquidity to the banking system. In... 19th October 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Should Italy leave EMU? The fact that Italy’s economic under-performance is linked to the weakness of its external sector prompts the question of whether Italy should leave EMU to allow its currency to depreciate and regain... 20th September 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How strong will the German recovery be? Rising business confidence, modest falls in unemployment and the prospect of early elections have led many commentators to call the turnaround for the German economy. We have long been positive on the... 16th August 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Why is Italy doing so badly? Italy’s second recession in two years is largely due to the loss of competitiveness in manufacturing, reflecting low productivity growth rather than rapid growth in wage costs. This has been... 30th June 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the ECB cut rates? The case for a cut in euro-zone interest rates is straightforward: the economic recovery has lost momentum and monetary policy is one of the few remaining levers available to stimulate growth. Indeed... 26th May 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus EU Constitution: How Will Markets React To The Referendums? Recent opinion polls suggest that the French referendum on 29th May is likely to be extremely close, whilst the Dutch referendum (1st June) seems more likely to reject the constitution. In this Focus... 25th May 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What Happens if the UK Rejects the EU Constitution? Recent opinion polls suggest that the French referendum on 29th May could reject the EU constitution, although the chances are good that ratification could be obtained by repeating the referendum at a... 31st March 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus EU Stability and Growth Pact – An Obituary The changes agreed this week clearly water down the EU stability and growth pact (SGP) and allow far greater scope for countries to run budget deficits above the 3% limit. Thus it may seem odd that... 24th March 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The implications of record German unemployment German unemployment reached a post-war high in January of over five million. In this Focus we examine the statistics in more detail and assess whether the labour market reforms currently being... 18th February 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus EU Constitution – the economic consequences of rejection Ten EU countries are set to hold referendums on whether to ratify the proposed EU constitution. The UK referendum is the most likely to fail, but for other countries the risk of rejecting the... 10th February 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus EU Constitution: ratification likely to be a rough ride On 20th February Spain will become the first of ten countries to hold a referendum on the proposed EU constitution. This Focus is the first in a series which will set out the key event risks involved... 9th February 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone economy live with a stronger euro? 18th January 2005 · 1 min read