Europe Economics Focus Why the euro-zone needs to break up The threatened break-up of the euro-zone, which many see as a potential disaster, would actually open the door to renewed economic growth, not just for the weaker members of the zone, but for Europe... 7th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is Italy Europe’s ticking time-bomb? Perennially weak growth and a mountain of government debt mean that the Italian public finances are a potential time-bomb waiting to explode. Indeed, we think the size of the Governments debts will... 5th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Greece: From crisis to tragedy – and then salvation? The joint EU/IMF support packages may have provided Greece with some breathing space but it will not prevent years of economic hardship. Whatever its actions, the Government has no choice but to... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What to make of the ECB’s bond purchases Fears that the ECBs bond purchases will stoke inflation or encourage fiscal laxity are overblown. They do not constitute full-blown quantitative easing and will not allow euro-zone economies to escape... 18th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Greek default – The whys and wherefores Continued uncertainties about the proposed rescue package for Greece, coupled with the exceptionally grim medium-term outlook for the economy and public finances, point to a significant risk of some... 30th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the euro-zone survive? The euro-zone should stay together for another few years at least. But the region’s periphery requires an excruciating competitive adjustment that might well plunge it into depression. Meanwhile... 28th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Germany save the euro-zone? Increased domestic spending in Germany would not only assist the euro-zone’s troubled periphery but would also be in Germany’s own interests, helping to reduce unemployment. However, while there are... 7th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How much will fiscal tightening hurt Europe? Greeces troubles have highlighted the need for decisive fiscal consolidation in at least parts of the euro-zone. This need not be as aggressive as in the UK or US, but could still knock over 0.5% off... 7th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the euro-zone recovery spread to the domestic economy? While the euro-zone is benefiting from the improvement in global trade conditions, the big issue is whether this will translate into any lasting pick-up in the domestic economy. There are reasons for... 14th December 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How long will Ireland’s hangover last? There have recently been some encouraging signs that Irelands painful adjustment may be coming to an end. Nonetheless, considerable obstacles remain. We expect the economy to continue to contract in... 3rd December 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Who is most at risk from deflation? Along with other regions, the euro-zone remains at risk from a prolonged and damaging bout of deflation. But the threat posed by deflation varies considerably between different countries. Spain and... 28th October 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can France maintain its lead? France is likely to give up its recent status as the euro-zones star performer in the next two years, losing ground mainly to Germany. But with household finances and the banking sector in a fairly... 30th September 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How much slack is there in the euro-zone? The damaging effects of the recession and financial crisis have almost certainly hit the euro-zone’s productive potential, suggesting that conventional estimates of spare capacity exaggerate the... 30th July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Spain: How long will the pain last? Like some other deficit economies, Spain has so far weathered the global economic slump surprisingly well. But this is unlikely to last. We still expect Spains considerable economic imbalances to lead... 6th July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will 'sticky' wages save the euro-zone from deflation? The perceived rigidity of euro-zone labour markets will certainly not prevent a brief period of negative inflation in the region. What’s more, with wage growth probably set to drop towards zero in the... 2nd June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The euro-zone inventory overhang has yet to unwind Our analysis suggests that the inventory rundown underway in the euro-zone manufacturing sector has further to go and, crucially, that the pace of destocking is likely to be even greater in Q2 than in... 27th May 2009 · 1 min read
