Europe Economics Focus Greek default - causes and effects The markets are right to think that a likely second bail-out for Greece over the coming months will not preclude some form of debt restructuring or default. But we suspect that they are too sanguine... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro doomed to fail? The deepening problems in the euro-zone’s peripheral economies beg the question of whether the single currency union is doomed to fail. If failure means that it does not survive and prosper in its... 27th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Spain stay out of the crisis? Worries that the euro-zone debt crisis will enter a more dangerous phase by spreading from the smaller peripheral economies to Spain have recently diminished. But we think that it would be premature... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Portugal avoid another lost decade? Portugal seems very likely to become the third peripheral euro-zone country to need a bail-out. But it also faces much greater challenges if it is to overcome the deep-seated structural problems which... 22nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can European policymakers rise to the challenge? Well over a year into the euro-zone debt crisis, policymakers still face enormous challenges if they are to prevent the region’s problems from continuing to escalate. On current evidence, it is far... 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the Emerald Isle ever regain its sparkle? The recent bail-out and banking support measures may have pulled Ireland back from the brink of imminent disaster. But the economy and the public finances remain in an extremely precarious position... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What can euro-zone policymakers do? Euro-zone policymakers face enormous challenges to avoid a near-term financial disaster, reduce governments’ debt burdens in the medium term and foster economic growth. Given the scale of these tasks... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone really break up? There are several practical obstacles to leaving the euro-zone which mean that this is not an easy option. But if the benefits were deemed large enough, none of the obstacles would be insurmountable... 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Would a break-up of the euro help or hinder recovery? The long-term effects of some form of break-up of the euro-zone might ultimately prove to be positive. But the likely short-term damage means that such an event would hinder, rather than help, the... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Spain take the pain? Markets may have become more confident that Spain can get its public finances under control. But if Spain is to restore external balance within the euro-zone, it may have to accept a decade of... 25th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Could a weaker euro save the euro-zone? A sharp drop in the euro exchange rate might seem like the answer to all of the currency unions problems. But while it might boost the core economies exports, it would do little to help the troubled... 11th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Why the euro-zone needs to break up The threatened break-up of the euro-zone, which many see as a potential disaster, would actually open the door to renewed economic growth, not just for the weaker members of the zone, but for Europe... 7th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is Italy Europe’s ticking time-bomb? Perennially weak growth and a mountain of government debt mean that the Italian public finances are a potential time-bomb waiting to explode. Indeed, we think the size of the Governments debts will... 5th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Greece: From crisis to tragedy – and then salvation? The joint EU/IMF support packages may have provided Greece with some breathing space but it will not prevent years of economic hardship. Whatever its actions, the Government has no choice but to... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What to make of the ECB’s bond purchases Fears that the ECBs bond purchases will stoke inflation or encourage fiscal laxity are overblown. They do not constitute full-blown quantitative easing and will not allow euro-zone economies to escape... 18th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Greek default – The whys and wherefores Continued uncertainties about the proposed rescue package for Greece, coupled with the exceptionally grim medium-term outlook for the economy and public finances, point to a significant risk of some... 30th April 2010 · 1 min read