Europe Economics Focus Can the euro survive the sovereign debt crisis? Policymakers’ latest plans to tackle the euro-zone debt crisis are unlikely to address the region’s fundamental problems and secure the future of the single currency. We still doubt that the euro will... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is Italy close to buckling? Italy’s recent austerity measures and ECB purchases of government bonds have brought Italy back from the brink. But we still think that Italy may eventually default, with huge repercussions for the... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How a banking crisis could sink the euro A loss of confidence in the banking system of a euro member country could potentially result in all of that country’s bank liabilities effectively ending up as the liabilities of the ECB. The sheer... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can strong growth save the euro? The recent strength of the euro-zone economy has masked widening divergences within the region. And with even in the core economies set to slow over the coming quarters, it would be wrong to expect... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Greek default - causes and effects The markets are right to think that a likely second bail-out for Greece over the coming months will not preclude some form of debt restructuring or default. But we suspect that they are too sanguine... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro doomed to fail? The deepening problems in the euro-zone’s peripheral economies beg the question of whether the single currency union is doomed to fail. If failure means that it does not survive and prosper in its... 27th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Spain stay out of the crisis? Worries that the euro-zone debt crisis will enter a more dangerous phase by spreading from the smaller peripheral economies to Spain have recently diminished. But we think that it would be premature... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Portugal avoid another lost decade? Portugal seems very likely to become the third peripheral euro-zone country to need a bail-out. But it also faces much greater challenges if it is to overcome the deep-seated structural problems which... 22nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can European policymakers rise to the challenge? Well over a year into the euro-zone debt crisis, policymakers still face enormous challenges if they are to prevent the region’s problems from continuing to escalate. On current evidence, it is far... 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the Emerald Isle ever regain its sparkle? The recent bail-out and banking support measures may have pulled Ireland back from the brink of imminent disaster. But the economy and the public finances remain in an extremely precarious position... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What can euro-zone policymakers do? Euro-zone policymakers face enormous challenges to avoid a near-term financial disaster, reduce governments’ debt burdens in the medium term and foster economic growth. Given the scale of these tasks... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone really break up? There are several practical obstacles to leaving the euro-zone which mean that this is not an easy option. But if the benefits were deemed large enough, none of the obstacles would be insurmountable... 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Would a break-up of the euro help or hinder recovery? The long-term effects of some form of break-up of the euro-zone might ultimately prove to be positive. But the likely short-term damage means that such an event would hinder, rather than help, the... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Spain take the pain? Markets may have become more confident that Spain can get its public finances under control. But if Spain is to restore external balance within the euro-zone, it may have to accept a decade of... 25th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Could a weaker euro save the euro-zone? A sharp drop in the euro exchange rate might seem like the answer to all of the currency unions problems. But while it might boost the core economies exports, it would do little to help the troubled... 11th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Why the euro-zone needs to break up The threatened break-up of the euro-zone, which many see as a potential disaster, would actually open the door to renewed economic growth, not just for the weaker members of the zone, but for Europe... 7th July 2010 · 1 min read
