Commodities Focus Europe waiting for LNG to flow The price of natural gas in Europe was thrust into the spotlight during Europe’s energy crisis and remains a key political and industrial pressure point. In short, we expect natural gas prices in the... 10th December 2024 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Focus The slow agony of Germany’s auto industry One of the many problems that the next German government will have to contend with is the struggling car sector. Unfortunately, the sector’s challenges are only likely to intensify given the prospect... 27th November 2024 · 29 mins read
Global Economics Focus How to think about tariffs In this Focus, we construct a framework to explore the channels through which an import tariff works, which we use to answer key questions about the impact of Trump’s proposals for a 10% universal... 25th November 2024 · 21 mins read
Europe Economics Focus What will US protectionism mean for the euro-zone? Our base case is that protectionist policies from the US next year will have only a small economic impact on Europe, but the fallout will vary between countries and there are risks of greater damage... 22nd November 2024 · 20 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2025 policy outlook 1734620400 Our senior economists hosted an online briefing to discuss the final Fed, ECB and Bank of England decisions of 2024.
Event Europe Drop-In: Germany's political crisis – Macro and market consequences 1731510000 Could the collapse of Germany’s ruling ‘traffic light’ coalition open the way to more effective governance for Europe’s largest economy?
Europe Commercial Property Focus What is the outlook for German residential? Poor economic growth and vulnerability to structural change in the office and retail sector are set to weigh on German property returns in the coming years. But solid rental prospects in the... 23rd October 2024 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Headline inflation will be below 2% next year After falling to 1.8% in September, headline inflation in the euro-zone is almost certain to rise in the final few months of 2024. But we think that falling oil and natural gas prices will cause it to... 3rd October 2024 · 13 mins read
Global Economics Focus How to gauge recession risk in DMs Getting an early steer on whether an economy has entered recession requires a holistic assessment of a variety of indicators to see if multiple variables are flagging recession at the same time. In... 9th September 2024 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Focus ECB rate cuts will do little to boost GDP We suspect that the boost to euro-zone economic growth from interest rate cuts over the next year or two will be quite small. The ECB is likely to lower its policy rates only gradually and leave them... 7th August 2024 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What would a Trump victory mean for Russia-Ukraine? Donald Trump has said that he could quickly end the war in Ukraine if he is re-elected as US President. This Focus answers key questions on what the shape of any agreement might look like, what might... 23rd July 2024 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Focus German debt brake to cause more self-inflicted pain Fiscal policy has become almost as fraught in Germany as it is in France and Italy, but rather than from a desire to run very loose fiscal policy, Germany’s woes stem from its strict “debt brake”... 23rd July 2024 · 21 mins read
Europe Economics Focus EU to move cautiously on China de-risking In the coming years, we expect Europe to raise barriers to trade and investment with China but to do so in a targeted and gradual manner. If so, there would be big implications for some sectors... 7th June 2024 · 17 mins read
Europe Economics Focus German manufacturing: from growth driver to drag Germany’s manufacturing sector has been in relative decline since around 2017. We think it will continue to shrink in the coming years and expect productivity growth in the sector to remain relatively... 18th April 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Focus ECB rate cuts: when, how fast, and how far? The ECB looks set to cut rates in June, reducing the deposit rate from 4% to 3.75%, and we think it will follow that up with rate reductions at every remaining meeting this year. The pace of cuts... 16th April 2024 · 23 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Germany will be stuck in the slow lane The recent weakness of Germany’s economy is partly due to temporary factors which should ease this year. However, demographic and structural headwinds, partly driven by global fragmentation, mean the... 19th March 2024 · 21 mins read
