Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Aug.) The further increases in headline and core inflation in August, and likelihood that they will keep rising, will add to the pressure on the ECB to step up the pace of tightening. The balance of... 31st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (August) Germany’s inflation rate resumed its upward trend in August. We expect it to be around, or above, 10% in October after the temporary measures which have suppressed prices since June are withdrawn and... 30th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Aug.) The further decline in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator in August echoes the message from the other business surveys that the euro-zone economy is on the verge of recession as sky-high energy... 30th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Aug.) Although the Ifo Business Climate Index edged down only trivially in August it remained at a very low level and is consistent with the economy contracting sharply. After GDP expanded by a mere 0.1% q... 25th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (August) August’s flash PMIs suggest that the euro-zone economy is now contracting. While global price pressures have become less intense in the past few months as supply chain problems have eased, soaring... 23rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (July) Final inflation data for July underline that price pressures remain strong and broad-based. With wholesale natural gas and electricity prices having surged again in the weeks since July, retail gas... 18th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The chunky rise in euro-zone GDP in Q2 reflected the re-opening of the services sector and was accompanied by a further increase in employment. But a combination of high inflation, rising interest... 17th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (August) The ZEW survey fell again in August and is at a level consistent with the economy contracting. We now think a recession is unavoidable in the second half of this year as the impact of high energy... 16th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jul.) The decline in CPIF inflation in July will be of limited comfort to policymakers given that the core rate, excluding energy, jumped to 6.6%. We still think the Riksbank may raise its repo rate by a... 12th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Jul.) The increase in CPI-ATE to a record-high will have raised eyebrows at the Norges Bank. We think another 50 basis point hike at next week’s interim meeting is likely. 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jun.) The small increase in German industrial production in June was not enough to reverse declines earlier in the year and left output well below pre-pandemic levels. Things are going to get more difficult... 5th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Jun.) & Final PMIs (Jul.) The sharp fall in euro-zone retail sales in June means sales contracted in Q2 as a whole. With the final PMI surveys pointing to price pressures continuing to intensify and demand softening, we think... 3rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Jul.) Swiss inflation appears to have peaked in July at an enviably low level compared to that of most other advanced economies. That said, the core rate reached its highest level in more than two decades... 3rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (June) In June, the number of unemployed people rose in the euro-zone for the first time in 14 months. Nevertheless, we expect the labour market to remain tight even as the economy heads into recession... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 2022) The chunky increase in euro-zone GDP in Q2 was due to the re-opening of the services sector which has masked a deterioration in most other parts of the economy. We expect a triple whammy of high... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (July) With headline and core inflation rising more than expected yet again, the case for the ECB to pursue further aggressive tightening of interest rates is unassailable. A 50bp hike in September now looks... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
