Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Sep.) & Unemployment (Aug.) The jump in the euro-zone’s headline inflation rate in September into double digits will be of grave concern to the ECB. Despite the weak economic outlook, we expect the Bank to prioritise inflation... 30th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (September) The sharp increase in Germany’s headline inflation in September cannot be explained by temporary factors. With business surveys showing that price pressure remain strong and the labour market likely... 29th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Sep.) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator fell to a two-year low in September with business surveys echoing the message from more timely surveys that activity has slowed sharply. With Russia squeezing gas... 29th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) The further big fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in September adds to the gloom surrounding the German economy as worries about energy prices and declining household real incomes hit... 26th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (September) September’s PMI surveys are consistent with a small decline in euro-zone GDP in Q3. And the increases in the prices indices suggest that inflation is not yet at a turning point. 23rd September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (August) Final inflation data for August confirm that price pressures are very strong and broad-based. While energy and food inflation are particularly high, measures of underlying and domestic inflation are... 16th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Hourly Labour Costs (Q2) The pick-up in euro-zone hourly wage costs in Q2, along with a big upward revision to Q1, on the face of it suggests that pay pressures in the region continued to build. The detail provides a more... 15th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (July) July’s 2.3% monthly decline in euro-zone industrial production was largely due to a big fall in Ireland’s output. But even excluding Ireland, production decreased in July, with energy-intensive... 14th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Aug.) The continued increase in inflation in August, with the core rate hitting its highest level since December 1991, will keep the Riksbank in hawkish mode. We had expected the Bank to raise its repo rate... 14th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (September) The larger-than-expected fall in the German ZEW sentiment indicator in September adds to the evidence that the German economy is already contracting. Meanwhile, the final inflation figures for August... 13th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Aug.) The continued increase in core inflation in August took it further above the Norges Bank’s target. With policymakers in hawkish mood, we expect another 50bp rate hike at the next meeting in two weeks. 9th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The 0.8% q/q increase in euro-zone GDP in Q2 will be as good as it gets for a long time. A recession looks inevitable in the coming quarters and the subsequent recovery is likely to be sluggish. 7th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (July) German industrial output fell a bit less than anticipated in July but that was mainly due to a rebound in construction activity, while there were signs that manufacturing production is starting to be... 7th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Jul.) & Final PMIs (Aug.) The small rise in euro-zone retail sales volumes in July only partly reversed the previous month’s big fall, and with consumer confidence very weak and the final PMI surveys for August suggesting that... 5th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (July) The fall in the euro-zone unemployment rate in July to a record low of 6.6% is likely to be as good as it gets. The region faces a difficult winter and recession looms. So the jobless rate is likely... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Aug.) Swiss inflation came in a little higher than expected in August, at 3.5%, while the core rate was unchanged at 2.0%. Although these rates are enviably low by international standards, the SNB is likely... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
