Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) & Flash HICP (October) The increase in euro-zone GDP in Q3 does not alter our view that the euro-zone is on the cusp of a recession. But with inflation having jumped to well over 10%, the ECB will prioritise price stability... 31st October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (October) Renewed inflation shockers in Germany, France and Italy in October pour cold water on expectations that the ECB’s softer tone on rate hikes yesterday will pave the way for a “pivot”. We continue to... 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (October) The further fall in the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator in October adds to the evidence that the euro-zone economy is contracting. But the labour market still looks tight and firms’... 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q3 2022) The unexpected resilience of Germany’s economy in Q3, with GDP rising 0.3% q/q, has probably only postponed the recession which we now expect to begin in the fourth quarter. Business surveys show that... 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) The Ifo Business Climate Index held up better than expected in October but was still extremely low. With other business surveys also persistently weak, we think Germany will experience the deepest... 25th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October) The flash PMIs for October provide yet more evidence that the euro-zone is sliding into quite a deep recession but that inflationary pressures remain intense. 24th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (September) Final inflation data for September confirm that price pressures are very strong and broad-based. While headline inflation should fall next year as energy and food inflation drop back, the core rate is... 19th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (October) Although the headline ZEW investor sentiment indicator edged up in October it is still at a very low level, while the current conditions index – which is more closely corelated with GDP – actually... 18th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Consumer Prices (September) The reversal of temporary measures to reduce travel costs played a big role in the surge in German inflation in September. But underlying price pressures remain strong and broad based. We continue to... 13th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Sep.) The large increase in inflation in September, to 10.8%, confirms that the Riksbank will press on with its rapid monetary policy tightening. For now we have assumed that rates will peak at 2.5% in... 13th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) The 1.5% m/m increase in industrial production in August was partly due to an out-sized rise in Ireland and was not enough to reverse the fall in July. All the evidence suggests that euro-zone... 12th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Sep.) The Norges Bank signalled at its last meeting that it would slow the pace of rate hikes, but the strength of September’s inflation data – published this morning – makes another 50p hike more likely. 10th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Aug.) The larger-than-expected drop in German industrial production in August was driven mainly by some volatile components and, together with some upward revisions to July’s data, suggests industrial... 7th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Aug.) The 2% year-on-year decline in euro-zone retail sales in August will probably look mild by the end of the year. Measures of consumer confidence point to sales falling much further, which seems quite... 6th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Sep.) The final euro-zone PMIs for September suggested that price pressures in the region are not yet starting to ease, even as activity appears to be in decline. We think some economies, including Germany... 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Sep.) & Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The fall in the headline rate of inflation in Switzerland in September suggests that price pressures may have peaked there, which is consistent with the message from the latest business surveys... 3rd October 2022 · 2 mins read
