Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Jul.) July’s unchanged reading for HICP inflation in Germany suggests that euro-zone inflation probably remained at 1.3% in July. German core inflation is set to creep higher over the rest of the year, but... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jul.) July’s EC survey points to a sharp acceleration in euro-zone GDP growth. But we doubt that the economy will perform quite as well as the survey suggests. And with inflation expectations low, tighter... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish GDP (Q2) & Swiss KOF (Jul.) Sweden’s exceptionally strong GDP growth was driven entirely by domestic demand and highlights the need for monetary policy normalisation. Meanwhile, July’s rise in the Swiss KOF points to a pick-up... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (July) & Labour Data (June) Both the Swedish Economic Tendency Survey and labour market indicators point to increasing wage and price pressures. This supports our view that the Riksbank and markets are underestimating how soon... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo & French INSEE Business Confidence (Jul.) July’s increase in German Ifo business sentiment to a new record high suggests that neither the euro’s rise nor hints of QE tapering have taken the steam out of the economic upturn so far. 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jul.) July’s fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI leaves it still consistent with fairly strong growth. While the survey’s price indices also edged down, this seems unlikely to deter the ECB from tapering... 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Iceland Consumer Prices (Jul.) July’s rise in headline inflation was driven entirely by higher house prices and far overstates the extent of price pressures in Iceland. With underlying inflation set to stay below zero, we expect... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jul.) July’s dip in German investor sentiment presumably reflects the recent tightening of financial market conditions in response to the ECB’s talk of policy normalisation. But we do not take this as a... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q2) In contrast to the latest business surveys, the ECB’s Q2 Bank Lending Survey provided some evidence that the economic recovery might slow. However, with demand for credit still increasing, and banks... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q1) The fall in Ireland’s GDP in Q1 is not a major concern. The data are notoriously unreliable as a measure of underlying activity, and other indicators suggest that the economy is performing well. We... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (May) The widening of the euro-zone’s trade surplus in May adds to signs that GDP growth may have accelerated in the second quarter. And in contrast to the situation last year, we expect net trade to boost... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jun.) As underlying inflation is within touching distance of the Riksbank’s target, today’s rise in the krona should be followed by further gains as the remaining doves on the Executive Board come round to... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) May’s sharp rise in euro-zone industrial production left it at its highest level since September 2008 and bodes very well for GDP growth in Q2. 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Jun) Headline inflation in Norway slowed in June, and we think that it will fall further. Over the next few years, it is likely to remain below the Norges Bank’s target, so we think that interest rate... 10th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German, French & Spanish Industrial Production (May) May’s industrial production data for Germany, France and Spain show that output rose sharply across the board. This suggests that overall economic growth in the euro-zone accelerated further in Q2... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Jun.) The fall in Swiss inflation in June largely reflected lower energy prices. With core inflation holding close to zero, the SNB will stick to its ultra-loose policy stance over the next couple of years. 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
