Europe Data Response EC Survey and Spain HICP (November) The small increase in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for November suggests that prospects for the euro-zone economy may no longer be deteriorating. We still expect a recession, but it is... 29th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q3) After increasing by 0.2% q/q in Q3, the Swiss economy is set to slow in Q4, although any recession will probably be shallower than we had previously expected, and shallower than in neighbouring... 29th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov.) The increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in November does not change the big picture that the German economy is likely to contract in Q4. 24th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (November) The flash PMIs for November add to the evidence that the economy will contract in Q4. The price indices suggest that inflation will soon peak, but they remain extremely high by past standards. 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (October) Final inflation data for October confirm that price pressures strengthened and became more broad-based. Unlike in the US and UK, there is little sign that goods inflation has passed its peak. While... 17th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (November) The rebound in the ZEW and other sentiment indicators in November does not change the fact that the German economy is firmly headed for recession. 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3) Euro-zone GDP growth slowed to just 0.2% q/q in Q3 and with all of the timelier surveys pointing downwards, the economy looks set to fall into recession in Q4. Nevertheless, surveys of firms’ hiring... 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Oct.) Another bigger-than-expected increase in core inflation, to 7.9% in October, will keep the Riksbank focused on slowing demand when policymakers meet next week. We expect a further 75bp rate hike, to 2... 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.) The unexpected strength of euro-zone industrial production in September was largely due to the rebound in vehicles production and distortions affecting Ireland’s data. While vehicle output may... 14th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Consumer Prices (October) The rise in core inflation in Germany in October confirms that underlying price pressure in the country are still building. We expect the core rate to remain well above 2% throughout next year. 11th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Oct.) October’s stronger-than-expected inflation data pose an upside risk to our forecast for the policy rate to peak at 3%. But with house prices falling, the Norges Bank faces a tricky balancing act. 10th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s increase in euro-zone retail sales is unlikely to be sustained. Falling real incomes and rock bottom consumer confidence suggest that household spending will fall sharply over the winter... 8th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Sep.) German industrial production rose significantly in September but we doubt this is a sign of things to come. With industry facing headwinds from high energy costs, rising interest rates and cooling... 7th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) The final euro-zone PMIs for October paint a clear picture of falling activity and sky-high inflation. We expect the ECB to prioritise the fight against inflation and press on with raising the deposit... 4th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (September) The fall in the euro-zone unemployment rate to 6.6% in September shows that the labour market remained very tight even as the economy headed towards recession. We expect unemployment to rise in the... 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Oct.) The decline in both core and headline inflation in October supports our view that Switzerland has passed peak inflation. We expect further falls in the coming months which will allow the SNB to raise... 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
