Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Dec.) The euro-zone unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.6% in December but is likely to increase over the coming months as the economy falls into recession. That said, the increase will probably be smaller... 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) The small increase in euro-zone GDP in Q4 was better than we feared a few months ago but the economy excluding Ireland still flat-lined. As the data deteriorated towards the end of the quarter and... 31st January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank lending Survey (Q4 2022) Much like the latest money and credit data, the Q4 Bank Lending Survey painted a much more downbeat picture of economic prospects than the latest business surveys. Banks are tightening their lending... 31st January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Jan.) The improvement in economic sentiment in January is consistent with the picture painted by other surveys. But the high level of firms’ selling price expectations shows that the ECB’s work is far from... 30th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4 2022) The fall in German GDP in Q4 shows that the energy crisis started to dent activity at the end of last year. This pours cold water on the recent optimism about the prospects for the euro-zone and... 30th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP Indicator (Q4) Data published today show that the economy contracted by 0.6% q/q in Q4 as the resilience previously reported towards the end of last year has been revised away. With the more timely data for December... 30th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Spain GDP (Q4) Spain’s GDP increased in Q4 and is performing better than we expected only a couple of months ago. But Spain is still a laggard in Europe, with the economy smaller than it was before Covid. We think... 27th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) The further increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in January confirms that the recovery in German business sentiment that started at the end of 2022 has continued this year. But the fall in its... 25th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) The increase in the flash euro-zone Composite PMI for January left it consistent with the economy roughly stagnating. With employment intentions and price pressures still high, there is nothing here... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (December) The euro-zone has probably passed peak inflation as sharp declines in food and energy inflation are set to drag down the headline rate. But December’s final HICP data showed that underlying inflation... 18th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey & Final HICP (Jan./Dec.) Economic sentiment in Germany improved further at the start of 2023 adding to the signs that the economy will hold up better than we feared. But with underlying price pressures still rising, tight... 17th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Dec.) Yet another larger-than-expected increase in the Riksbank’s target measure of inflation and in the core rate suggest that policymakers are highly likely to raise rates by 50bp in February. 13th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Dec.) The continued strength of core inflation will encourage the Norges Bank to press on with another 25bp interest rate increase next week. While there is still some more upside risk to underlying... 10th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Nov.) and Sentix Survey (Jan.) The stability of the euro-zone unemployment rate in November, at a record low of 6.5%, shows that the labour market held up even better than we expected at the end of last year. And the third... 9th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Nov.) The rise in German industrial output in November confirms that industrial output held up better than we had expected in Q4. However, while the recent slump in gas prices should help energy-intensive... 9th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Nov.) Final HICP and ESI (Dec.) The fall in inflation and improvement in economic sentiment in December suggest that the euro-zone’s case of stagflation is not quite as acute as feared a few months ago. Nonetheless, a technical... 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
