Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Oct.) Given the surge in virus cases and new restrictions over the past few weeks, it was no surprise that euro-zone consumer confidence deteriorated in October. With governments ramping up their... 22nd October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Sep.) Core inflation is likely to edge up from the record low to which it fell in September. However, weak aggregate demand will keep it very subdued for the foreseeable future. 16th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) The recovery in euro-zone industrial output has slowed but is not going into reverse. The impact of the second COVID-19 wave should be much smaller than the first and will be felt most in the services... 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected fall in Swedish inflation in September will only strengthen the hand of the dovish contingent of the Riksbank’s Executive Board. We think it is only a matter of time before... 13th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Aug.) The small fall in German industrial production in August left it a long way below its pre-crisis level, and lagging the industrial rebounds elsewhere in the euro-zone. We think the sector will resume... 7th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep.) The increase in retail sales to above their pre-crisis level in August overstates the strength of the recovery in household consumption. Spending on travel, hospitality and entertainment will have... 5th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Sep.) September’s decline in euro-zone core inflation to a fresh record low was partly due to temporary factors that will be reversed in October. And the downward trend in core inflation this year has been... 2nd October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (August) The small rise in the euro-zone unemployment rate in August suggests that the winding back of short-time work schemes is already starting to take its toll on the region’s labour market. With... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Sep.), Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) While Swiss inflation has risen since reaching a trough in June, it is likely to stay very weak in the near term. Meanwhile, the positive set of September manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland KOF Economic Barometer (Sep.) The increase in the KOF Economic Barometer in September, to a fresh decade high, suggests that the Swiss economy gathered momentum going into Q4. While the second waves of virus cases in parts of... 30th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Sep.) The small improvement in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator for September was slightly better than anticipated. However, the index remained at a low level, and we suspect that it has not accurately... 29th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) The very small increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index for September is further evidence that the recovery has run out of steam. Germany’s export-oriented manufacturing sector is still expanding... 24th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (September) The further decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI in September adds to the evidence that the initial rebound in activity has already run out of steam. And with new restrictions being imposed... 23rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Sep.) Even though virus cases are rising sharply and restrictions are being tightened, euro-zone consumer confidence rose in September. But we doubt this will be sustained. Further restrictions are being... 22nd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Aug.) Euro-zone core inflation fell to a record low in August and we suspect that it will fall even further in September. Looking ahead, underlying price pressures are likely to remain weak. 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q2) The jump in nominal hourly labour costs growth in Q2 is hardly a sign of a healthy labour market as total hours worked slumped by even more than employee compensation. The pick-up in activity since... 15th September 2020 · 2 mins read
