Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.) September’s decline in euro-zone industrial output was largely due to the reversal of temporary effects in Italy, rather than a result of the second wave of COVID-19. We expect industrial production... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Oct.) The October inflation data from Sweden do not move the needle for policymakers. However, the persistent weakness of underlying price pressures is likely to remain a headache for the Riksbank over the... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Oct.) While Norwegian inflation edged further above target in October, it is set to fall back sharply in H1 2021 and so the Norges Bank will be in no rush to raise interest rates. 10th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Sep.) Germany’s manufacturing sector should be able to continue its recovery in the fourth quarter, even as much of the hospitality sector is closed down again. 6th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s data show that euro-zone retail sales were coming off the boil even before many non-essential retailers were forced to shut up shop. Online spending will probably pick up again, but by... 5th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP (Q3 2020) The 4.3% q/q increase in Swedish GDP in Q3 was below both our and the consensus forecast, but leaves the economy on track for a comparatively shallow drop in output this year – broadly in line with... 5th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) The final Composite PMIs suggest that economic activity in the euro-zone flat-lined in October. But with countries throughout the region entering new lockdowns or substantially tightening restrictions... 4th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Oct.) The absence of price pressures in Switzerland will remain a headache for the SNB over the coming years. And with the ECB set to loosen policy again next month, Swiss policymakers’ focus will remain... 3rd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The positive set of manufacturing PMIs for October suggest that the industrial rebound gathered momentum at the beginning of Q4. However, this is of little comfort given the imposition of new... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3), HICP (Oct.), Unemp. (Sep.) The post-lockdown rebound in euro-zone GDP was stronger than anticipated, which provides some hope that eventually things may get back to normal more rapidly than feared. But in the meantime, the... 30th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response French GDP (Q3 2020) The massive increase in GDP in Q3 is of no comfort to French policymakers or households, who are now contending with a second national lockdown. Indeed, we expect GDP to fall by 2.5% q/q or so in Q4. 30th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Oct.) & Belgium GDP (Q3 2020) The fact that the EC’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) was unchanged in October was a bit surprising given the surge in virus cases and associated restrictions in recent weeks. With... 29th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Economic Tendency Indicator (Oct.) The rise in Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) in October came as a bit of a surprise given the recent surge in COVID-19 cases there and suggests that the economic recovery – which monthly GDP... 28th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q3 2020) The ECB’s Bank Lending Survey show that bank lending conditions tightened in Q3. And there is a growing risk that they tighten further in Q4, just as the economic activity has begun to slow again. 27th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) The small decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index provides more evidence that Germany’s recovery is running out of steam. We expect GDP to increase slightly in the fourth quarter thanks to the... 26th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October) The further decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI in October is consistent with our view that the second wave of COVID-19 infections, and the new raft of containment measures, will cause the economy... 23rd October 2020 · 3 mins read
