Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Oct.) & Sweden Activity Ind. (Oct.) The stronger-than-expected increase in mainland Norwegian GDP means that the economy will avoid contracting in Q4 and confirms that it will experience a comparatively modest drop in output in 2020... 9th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) The third estimate of euro-zone Q3 GDP confirmed that the economy staged a rapid rebound from the first lockdowns. This provides grounds for optimism about growth prospects for next year. 8th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Oct.) Germany’s manufacturing output rose again in October and the signs are that it held up well after the lockdown-lite came into force in November. It now looks as if Germany will be the only major euro... 7th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Nov.) & Retail Sales (Oct.) October’s increase in euro-zone retail sales took them well above their level in February, but they are almost certain to have dropped back in November. And the PMIs suggest that activity in the wider... 3rd December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (October) Unusually big revisions to the back data show that the euro-zone labour market was in worse shape over the summer than previously indicated. The jobless rate now appears to be falling, but the recent... 2nd December 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Nov.) The current period of deflation in Switzerland will start to ease in early 2021, and the headline rate is likely to edge back into positive territory by March. However, this won’t be a game-changer... 2nd December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Nov.) The stability of euro-zone core inflation at just 0.2% in November is further evidence that the decline in inflation this year has not been primarily due to temporary factors. Both headline and core... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) & Switzerland GDP (Q3) The strong set of manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and the Nordics in November suggests that the industrial rebound gathered momentum in Q4, in keeping with the picture in German industry. This... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland KOF Economic Barometer (Nov.) The decline in the KOF Economic Barometer in November adds to signs that the rebound in Swiss GDP shifted into reverse in Q4. However, given the government’s decision to resist a nationwide lockdown... 30th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Nov.) The fall in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the euro-zone in November was hardly a surprise given the tightening of restrictions. But the ESI is higher than it was in the spring... 27th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov) & Q3 GDP (Second estimate) The small decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index for November confirms that the German economy is losing momentum but also that it is holding up much better than many other countries. We suspect... 24th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (November) The drop in the Composite PMI to well below 50 adds to the evidence that the euro-zone economy will post another sizeable contraction in Q4. But with vaccines looking increasingly likely to be rolled... 23rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The fall in consumer confidence in November suggests that good news about the vaccine has not done much to improve sentiment in the euro-zone. With the virus still spreading quickly and lockdowns... 20th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP Inflation (Oct.) Headline inflation is likely to remain below zero for several more months and the COVID-19 restrictions in place throughout the euro-zone will keep core inflation close to zero too. 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Q3) This morning’s release of Q3 GDP data from Norway confirmed that the mainland economy bounced back strongly over the summer. However, new restrictions both locally and in key trade partners mean that... 17th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3), Int. Trade (Sep.) The second estimate that euro-zone GDP rose by 12.6% q/q in Q3 was little different to the “preliminary flash” estimate published a fortnight ago and means that GDP was 4.4% below its Q4 2019 level... 13th November 2020 · 3 mins read
