Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q4 2020) The Q4 Bank Lending Survey revealed that the demand for bank credit fell at the end of last year, and banks tightened their lending standards as they became more worried about the economic outlook... 19th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (2020) News that German GDP contracted by 5.0% in 2020 confirms that it withstood the lockdown well in Q4. It now seems likely that GDP will decline in Q1 this year, but it should expand rapidly after that... 14th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s 2.5% monthly increase in euro-zone industrial production was almost entirely due to a huge increase in Ireland. Excluding Ireland, production was roughly flat on the month. Nevertheless... 13th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Nov.) & Sweden Activity Ind. (Nov.) The smaller-than-expected fall in mainland Norwegian GDP in November shows that activity was reasonably resilient to tighter virus-related restrictions and was well placed coming into 2021. While... 12th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Dec.) While core Norwegian inflation edged further above target in December, it is set to fall back swiftly this year and so the Norges Bank will be in no rush to raise interest rates. 11th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Nov.) German manufacturers withstood the restrictions imposed in November much better than many feared, meaning the economy almost certainly expanded in Q4 last year. However, we suspect that it will... 8th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Nov.), HICP & ESI (Dec.) Activity data published this morning suggest that the euro-zone economy performed better in Q4 than we had anticipated. But the recent extensions of lockdowns make it more likely that the economy... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Dec.) The downward revision to the euro-zone’s Composite PMI for December suggests the economy ended 2020 on a slightly weaker note than previously thought. With restrictions being extended and tightened in... 6th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Dec.) Swiss inflation is likely to climb out of deflationary territory over the coming months. However, it is still set to remain very weak over the coming years, and does not change the picture for the SNB... 5th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) The strong set of December manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and the Nordics indicates that industry started 2021 on the front foot, supported by robust activity in Asia. This bodes well for Q1 and... 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Dec.) Euro-zone consumer confidence rose in December despite the tightening of virus containment measures in many countries. But it remained very low, and with the virus spreading quickly and a new threat... 21st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) The increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index for December supports our view that Germany will avoid a contraction in Q4. But the new tightening in coronavirus restrictions, which came into effect... 18th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Nov.) The breakdown of November inflation showed that falling prices for tourism-related services remain a major drag on headline and core inflation, which were unrevised from the flash estimates. Looking... 17th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Flash PMIs (Dec.) & Hourly Labour Costs (Q3) The rebound in the Composite PMI in December to just below 50 primarily reflected the partial lifting of virus restrictions in France. But with Germany now imposing tougher measures, the big picture... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s increase in euro-zone industrial output marked a decent start to the quarter and we think that production will rise in Q4 as a whole. Industry has been largely unaffected by the more... 14th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway & Sweden Consumer Prices (Nov.) The sharp fall in Norwegian inflation in November was skewed by energy effects, but the decline in the core rate underlines that policymakers will be in no rush to raise rates. Meanwhile, the... 10th December 2020 · 2 mins read
