Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Dec.) Data published today show that German industrial production was flat in December and we suspect that output will have fallen slightly since then as virus containment measures continued to take a toll... 8th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s data show that euro-zone retail sales rose at the end of last year. But restrictions have been tightened in many economies since then and non-essential shops remain closed in several... 4th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone HICP Inflation (Jan. 2021) The jump in inflation in January reflects several one-off factors, some of which will be reversed in February. Headline inflation is likely to rise to around 2% by the end of the year, but will drop... 3rd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Jan.) The final Composite PMIs suggest that economic activity in the euro-zone contracted in January. We suspect that the economy has become more resilient to pandemic-related restrictions than it was a... 3rd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) Given that all of the major economies have already published their Q4 data, it came as no surprise that euro-zone GDP contracted by 0.7% q/q. With strict containment measures still necessary to... 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response France Flash CPI (Jan.) The surprisingly big jump in France’s headline inflation rate in January was primarily driven by a surge in manufactured goods inflation as winter sales were postponed by two weeks. This will be... 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (December) The stability of the euro-zone’s unemployment rate at just 8.3% in December highlights once again the extent to which government policies have protected jobs during the pandemic. And as this support... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP Indicator (Q4) & Man. PMIs (Jan.) The strong set of January manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and the Nordics indicates that industry continued to cushion the blow from virus restriction-driven declines in services activity at the... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4 2020) Confirmation that Germany avoided a contraction in GDP in Q4 last year is of little comfort given that its economy will almost certainly shrink in Q1 this year. A strong recovery is still likely... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response France, Spain & Austria GDP (Q4) Tough restrictions imposed in France and Austria last autumn to curb the spread of COVID-19 caused both countries’ GDP to fall in Q4. Spain’s laxer approach meant its economy actually grew. But for... 29th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (Jan.) The jump in German HICP inflation appears to reflect methodological changes as well as the VAT hike. If a similar approach is adopted throughout the euro-zone, which at face value seems likely... 28th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Jan.) January’s fall in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the euro-zone supports our view that the economy will contract again in Q1. The survey also suggests that inflationary pressure... 28th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Economic Tendency Indicator (Jan.) The rise in Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) in January was a welcome surprise and shows that the manufacturing sector remains in rude health. That said, retail is struggling, and with... 28th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) The fall in the headline Ifo Business Climate Indicator for January is consistent with our view that, having proved resilient in Q4, German’s economy will contract in Q1. Tougher Covid-19 restrictions... 25th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Flash PMIs (January) The renewed decline in the Composite PMI in January confirms that the tighter measures imposed are taking their toll on the economy and that services are bearing the brunt. With restrictions unlikely... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Dec.) December’s final HICP release shows that core inflation remained very weak across the board at the end of last year, with no signs that prices pressures are building. Inflation will increase in the... 20th January 2021 · 2 mins read
