Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Feb.) The small upward revision to the euro-zone’s Composite PMI for February still leaves it consistent with another contraction in GDP in Q1. And while Italy’s PMI rose above the 50-mark, that is unlikely... 3rd March 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Feb.) Swiss inflation surprised on the downside in February, but temporary forces look set to push it higher over the coming months. However, with underlying price pressures likely to remain much weaker... 3rd March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone HICP Inflation (Feb. 2021) After euro-zone inflation held steady in February, it looks set to rise over the rest of the year, taking it above the near-2% target. But this will be driven largely by temporary forces so we think... 2nd March 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The strong set of manufacturing PMIs for February indicates that industry remains in rude health. That said, as elsewhere, there are signs of supply problems and rising price pressures. 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q4 2020) & KOF Barometer (Feb.) The 0.3% q/q expansion in Swiss GDP in Q4 was slightly better than expected and means that output was just 1.6% smaller than in Q4 2019. Tighter virus-related restrictions and a renewed slump in the... 26th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Feb.) February’s renewed rise in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the euro-zone still left it at a depressed level by pre-pandemic standards and supports our view that activity will remain... 25th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Jan.) January’s jump in inflation is likely to be followed by further increases to over 2% later this year. But we think that much of this is temporary and expect it to fall back sharply in 2022. The upshot... 23rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) The increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in February suggests that the German economy is weathering the lockdown better than anticipated. It also points to some upside risk to our forecast that... 22nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (February) February’s small increase in the Composite PMI left it still below 50 and consistent with our view that euro-zone GDP will probably edge down again in Q1. The survey also suggested that price... 19th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Feb.) Euro-zone consumer confidence rose in February but it remained very low. Unless vaccine programmes accelerate to allow restrictions to be lifted soon, a sustained pick up in confidence remains months... 18th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jan.) Swedish inflation rose sharply, as expected, in January and is set rise above the Riksbank’s 2% target in Q2. In any case, policymakers have signalled that they will look through any temporary breach... 18th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q4) The preliminary estimate of euro-zone Q4 GDP was revised up slightly in today’s release, and confirmed that the hit to the economy from the autumn lockdowns was much smaller than in Q2 last year... 16th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Dec.) Industrial production edged down at the end of last year but held up reasonably well during Q4 overall. At the start of this year, we think output will have been roughly unchanged; manufactures seem... 15th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Denmark GDP (Q4 2020) The slightly smaller-than-expected 0.6% q/q increase in Danish GDP in Q4 left the economy 3.1% smaller than it was in Q4 2019. Although activity is likely to slow in Q1 – on the back of tighter virus... 15th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Q4 2020) & Swiss CPI (Jan. 2021) This larger-than-expected increase in Norwegian mainland GDP in Q4 confirms that Norway is faring much better than its European peers. Activity is likely to have weakened at the start of 2021, but... 12th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Jan.) Core Norwegian inflation edged down in January and will continue to fall back this year as the inflationary boost from previous krone weakness fades. The Norges Bank will be in no rush to raise... 10th February 2021 · 2 mins read
