Europe Data Response Euro-zone HICP Inflation (March 2021) Euro-zone inflation continued on its upward trend in March and we think it will rise above 2% in the second half of the year. But this is largely due to temporary factors that are likely to fade in... 31st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (Mar.) The increase in German HICP inflation to 2.0% in March is not the end of the upward trend. We expect rising energy prices and some further unwinding of the factors which suppressed it last year to... 30th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Mar.) March’s jump in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the euro-zone took it to above its long-run average. But it was still below its pre-pandemic level and with virus restrictions now in... 30th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden ETI (Mar.) & Swiss KOF (Mar.) The latest business surveys indicate that Sweden and Switzerland ended Q1 on strong footings, helped by buoyant conditions in their manufacturing sectors. 30th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Mar.) The strong Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) for March provided further evidence that, the auto sector aside, Germany’s manufacturers are flourishing. But the rest of the economy is faring less well... 26th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The sharp increase in euro-zone consumer confidence in March came as a big surprise given tighter restrictions across the bloc and ongoing difficulties with the AstraZeneca vaccine. That said... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (March) March’s rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI pushed it back above the 50 mark for the first time in six months, but the recent tightening of restrictions in a number of countries suggests the... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jan.) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus narrowed in January, partly reversing some of the widening since last April. Looking ahead, goods exports should grow fairly steadily this year on the back of the... 18th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Feb.) The detailed breakdown confirmed that the drop in core inflation in February was largely due to the reversal of temporary factors which pushed it up in January. Looking ahead, we think higher energy... 17th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Feb.) Swedish inflation came in weaker than expected in February, and we continue to expect the Riksbank to keep the repo rate on hold for the foreseeable future. 15th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jan.) Industrial production rose in January and the business surveys suggest that, despite some supply-chain problems, the outlook is fairly bright. While domestic demand looks set to grow slowly by... 12th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Feb.) Core inflation in Norway came in above target again in February, and while we expect it to fall in the coming months, home-grown price pressures should support the rate later in the year as activity... 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q4, Final) The third estimate of euro-zone Q4 GDP confirmed that the economy contracted a little in Q4 2020, driven by weaker consumer spending. Ongoing restrictions mean that another fall in GDP is likely in Q1... 9th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Jan.) & Sweden Activity Ind. (Jan.) The latest tightening of virus-related restrictions in Norway will weigh on domestic activity in the near term. However, Norway remains comparatively well placed, and we expect the Norges Bank to be... 9th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jan.) The decline in German industrial production in January was largely due to a slump in construction and semi-conductor shortages in the auto sector, both of which should prove temporary. But the poor... 8th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) & Unemp. Rate (Jan.) January’s data show that euro-zone retail sales fell very sharply at the start of this year, despite the strength of online sales. As lockdowns have been extended in many economies and daily virus... 4th March 2021 · 2 mins read
