Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP Inflation (April) Euro-zone inflation continued on its upward trend in April and we think that it will soon rise above 2%. But that should only be temporary and we expect it to fall back below the ECB’s target in 2022. 30th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response French GDP (Q1 2021) The unexpected increase in French GDP in Q1 suggests that the economy has been more resilient to the poor health situation and restrictions than we had thought. Nevertheless, with France in a full... 30th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Apr.) April’s jump in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the euro-zone was surprising given the restrictions still in place. Although the surveys have been too optimistic about activity in Q1... 29th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP Indicator (Q1) & ETI (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish GDP in Q1 means that the economy has already largely regained its pre-virus peak. Meanwhile, the jump in the ETI in April suggests that the economy is... 29th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Apr.) April’s Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) is consistent with the economy treading water at the beginning of Q2 as optimism has been dented by supply bottlenecks and the Covid-19 restrictions. 26th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (April) April’s small rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI was a bit of a surprise given the tightening of virus restrictions. But the survey has overstated the strength of activity in recent months, and the... 23rd April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q1 2021) The Q1 ECB Bank Lending Survey revealed that the demand for bank credit fell in early 2021, and banks continued to tighten their lending standards as the pandemic dragged on and vaccine rollouts... 20th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Feb.) Euro-zone industrial production fell in February, reinforcing our view that the euro-zone economy has made a weak start to the year. Although the business surveys have overstated the strength of... 14th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Mar.) Swedish inflation rose closer to the Riksbank’s 2% target in March, in line with expectations. As it should only breach the target temporarily, we continue to expect the Riksbank to keep the repo rate... 14th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.) Euro-zone retail sales rose in February but were 2.8% below their pre-pandemic levels. In many countries coronavirus restrictions have been tightened since then, and are unlikely to be eased again... 12th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Feb.) The unexpected fall in industrial production in February means that German GDP will almost certainly have contracted in Q1. With severe restrictions likely to remain in place until well into the... 9th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Mar.) The fact that core inflation in Norway came in above target for the fifteenth month in a row in March came as no surprise. However, it underlines that the Norges Bank is in a very different place to... 9th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP Indicator (Feb.) Monthly GDP data from Sweden for February indicate that output it is all but certain to have expanded in Q1. The recent surge in virus cases casts a cloud on the government’s plans to ease... 8th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Mar.) The euro-zone Composite PMI rose to an 8-month high in March, but the level of activity remains low. And while the PMIs suggest that price pressures are building, we suspect this will be temporary. 7th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Feb.) The euro-zone’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.3% in February despite tighter virus measures being tightened, highlighting the extent to which government policies have protected jobs during the... 6th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Swiss inflation looks set to continue its upward trend over the coming months, but with temporary factors likely to fade in H2, and underlying price pressures likely to remain much weaker, this won’t... 1st April 2021 · 3 mins read
