Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (May) The small decline in German industrial production in May, which left it well below its pre-pandemic level, was due to another big fall in vehicle production. The problems in that, admittedly important... 7th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May) Euro-zone retail sales rose back above their pre-pandemic level in May. And as Covid restrictions continue to be lifted, spending in the services sector is recovering very rapidly, which will provide... 6th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (June) The PMIs point to the euro-zone economy recovering strongly in June and provide evidence that price pressures are now spilling over into the services sector, even in the periphery. Nevertheless, we... 5th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (May) & Final Mfg PMIs (Jun.) The big fall in euro-zone unemployment in May highlights that the re-opening of many services sector firms in that month has boosted hiring activity. And with a strong recovery now underway, it now... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (June) After dipping below 2% in June euro-zone inflation is likely to rise again in the coming months, led by higher inflation in Germany. But we think it will drop back early next year and remain low... 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (June) Economic sentiment in the euro-zone improved sharply in June as restrictions were lifted further. Although industrial confidence was flattered by low levels of stocks, presumably relating to supply... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (June) The German football team only narrowly scraped through the group stage of the Euros yesterday, but the news about the economy continues to be much more emphatic. 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June) The further strengthening of the euro-zone Composite PMI to a 15-year high in June underlines that the economy is rebounding quickly. Alongside this recovery, price pressures are continuing to build... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (May) The final euro-zone inflation data for May do not provide much evidence that price pressures are rising as the economy re-opens. We suspect that these will materialise in the coming months and will... 17th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Hourly Labour Costs (Q1) Average hourly labour cost growth slowed in Q1, and we expect wage growth to remain subdued over the coming years. This will keep underlying inflationary pressures down. 16th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) The further rise in euro-zone industrial production in April suggests that the sector is continuing to recover. Supply disruptions look set to drag on for a while yet, constraining the sector’s... 14th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway & Sweden Consumer Prices (May) Inflation in Norway and Sweden was lower than expected in May, with core inflation falling in both economies. This will reassure Sweden’s Riksbank that it can keep its policy rate on hold, but we... 10th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) Euro-zone GDP fell in Q1 and official data for April have been weak, but timelier data suggest that the recovery is now underway. We have pencilled in a 1% q/q rise in GDP in Q2, with risks to the... 8th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Apr.) The decline in German industrial production in April underlines that the German economy was performing well below normal at the start of the second quarter. But things should have improved since then... 8th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (May) Inflation in Switzerland is likely to keep climbing over the coming months, but we still expect it to fall back next year. So the SNB looks set to keep interest rates on hold for a very long time. 7th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) Euro-zone retail sales fell back again in April to below their pre-pandemic levels. But the re-opening of non-essential retail throughout much of the euro-zone in May means they will have improved... 4th June 2021 · 2 mins read
