Europe Economics Euro-zone Industrial Production (June) The second successive monthly fall in euro-zone industrial production in June was largely due to ongoing supply-chain difficulties in Germany. As these will ease only slowly, we don’t expect industry... 12th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norway Consumer Prices (Jul.) The small increase in headline CPI inflation in Norway, and the bigger decrease in the Norges Bank’s target measure, will have no bearing on the near-term outlook for monetary policy given that... 10th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics German Industrial Production (June) The further decline in German industrial output in June, to 6.8% below its pre-pandemic level, underlines that the problems in the auto sector will hold back an otherwise strong economic recovery. It... 6th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Final PMIs (July) and Retail Sales (June) The final PMIs show that the euro-zone’s recovery continued apace at the start of Q3. Price pressures are continuing to mount and point to an increase in inflation in the coming months, but we expect... 4th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) While inflation in Switzerland is likely to rise further in the coming months, the anticipated bout of re-opening inflation may have already passed, and the SNB will not be fazed. 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone GDP and Employment (Q2) After increasing more than expected in Q2, thanks to strong growth in the southern economies, euro-zone GDP should expand rapidly again in Q3 as core economies close in on their pandemic levels. China... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Flash HICP (July) Euro-zone inflation resumed its upward trend in July and we expect it to rise further in the remainder of the year. But this is largely due to temporary factors, which should fade in 2022. 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Germany Flash Inflation (July) The increase in German inflation to nearly 4% on the CPI measure was partly due to last year’s VAT cut and partly due to rising energy and food inflation, all of which should prove short-lived... 29th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (July) Economic sentiment in the euro-zone continued to improve in July as restrictions were lifted further. The EC Survey also showed that persistent input shortages are causing price pressures to grow... 29th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Sweden GDP Indicator (Q2) & ETI (Jul.) The 0.9% q/q increase in Swedish GDP in Q2 was a touch weaker than our forecast (+1.0%) but stronger than the consensus (+0.7%). While the best of the rebound in the industrial sector may be behind us... 29th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics German Ifo Survey (July) The small decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index in July suggests that the rebound in Germany may be losing some momentum. But Germany will still post very rapid GDP growth in both Q2 and Q3 and... 26th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July) July’s euro-zone PMIs confirm that the economy is still rebounding rapidly and that price pressures are continuing to build. While the Delta variant poses a risk to our above-consensus GDP forecasts... 23rd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) The euro-zone’s industrial sector took a step backwards in May as the global semiconductor shortage hit auto production. Supply disruptions look set to drag on for a while yet, constraining the sector... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Sweden Consumer Prices (June) The further fall in Swedish headline inflation in June is at odds with the recent data from the US and the UK, but came as no surprise given the recent drop in electricity prices. And with non-energy... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (June) The small increase in headline CPI inflation and small decrease in the Norges Bank’s target measure of inflation will make no difference to the immediate outlook for monetary policy, not least because... 9th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (May) & Sweden GDP Indicator (May) The larger-than-expected rise in mainland Norwegian GDP in May indicates that the economy is back in business following the lifting of restrictions, and it is likely to have regained its pre-virus... 7th July 2021 · 2 mins read
