Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) The renewed decline in the Composite PMI in December suggests that growth slowed to a crawl as tighter restrictions and growing consumer caution are taking their toll on economic activity, with the... 16th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) The rise in euro-zone industrial production in October means euro-zone industry started Q4 on a decent note. But supply-chain problems remain acute and, in any case, any improvement is likely to be... 14th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Nov.) The increase in Swedish CPIF inflation in November strengthens the hand of the hawks at the Riksbank and supports our view that policymakers will reduce the size of the balance sheet next year. But... 14th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Nov.) Headline inflation reached a 13-year high in November, mainly driven by energy inflation. But the core rate was more subdued and is likely to remain below the Norges Bank’s target throughout 2022. 10th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3) Data released today show that the euro-zone economy recovered to within 0.5% of its pre-pandemic level in Q3. But with Covid cases rising, governments tightening restrictions, and supply problems... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (October) The rebound in auto output in October means that aggregate industrial production may increase in the fourth quarter. But with the services sector being hit hard by new Covid restrictions, it seems... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Oct) & Final PMIs (Nov.) Euro-zone retail sales have levelled off since June, but rising Covid cases and the return of restrictions are likely to weigh on sales and other components of consumption in the coming months. 3rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Oct.) While labour market conditions continued to improve in October, the recent deterioration of the Covid situation and increased uncertainty due to the Omicron variant are likely to mean the recovery... 2nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) Inflation surprised on the upside in Switzerland in November, but this was due to temporary factors and it is likely to fall back to below 1.0% over the coming months. The upshot is that there is next... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Nov.) November’s inflation data were yet another surprise on the upside. The Omicron variant has increased the level of uncertainty even further but for now we suspect that it will have a fairly small... 30th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (Nov.) The increase in German inflation to 6% on the HICP measure was partly due to statistical quirks which should be reversed next month. But even the national CPI measure of inflation rose to 5.2%... 29th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (November) Despite the slight deterioration on the month, November’s EC business and consumer survey showed that economic sentiment in the euro-zone was high before the recent news about the Omicron variant. It... 29th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (November) The fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) for November was in line with expectations and suggests that the German economy was struggling even before the recent tightening of Covid restrictions... 24th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) The unexpected rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in November suggests that the region’s recovery has not lost further momentum. But with supply shortages still acute, Covid restrictions being... 23rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Oct.) October’s euro-zone inflation data confirm that core price pressures are weaker than in other advanced economies. That said, we think headline inflation will remain above 2% until late 2022. 17th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3) The decent increase in euro-zone GDP in Q3 means that the recovery is now almost complete in most of the region. We had already expected growth to slow markedly in Q4 as the boost from reopening fades... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
