Europe Data Response Swedish GDP (Q4) Q4’s Swedish GDP figures revealed that the economy remains mired in recession, providing a warning to the Riksbank that monetary policy will need to remain very accommodative for the foreseeable... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone CPI (Final Jan.), Ger. & Sp. CPI (1st Est. Feb.) The latest euro-zone, German and Spanish CPI figures highlight the continued lack of inflation pressure in the region. The ECB’s main worry should be the continued threat of deflation, rather than a... 26th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey & German Unemployment (Feb.) February’s EC consumer and business survey adds to the recent run of worrying evidence on the euro-zone’s prospects. Our forecast for the economy to expand by 1.5% this year will depend on a renewed... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4) & Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The second German GDP release confirmed that the recovery ground to a halt in Q4, with exports still rising, but domestic spending very weak. Sadly, the latest fall in consumer confidence suggests... 24th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) & French Consumer Spending (Jan.) The latest data add to the recent run of bad news. With German Ifo business sentiment falling in February and French consumer spending dropping in January, there is little hope that the euro-zone... 23rd February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) The euro-zone composite PMI was unchanged in February, adding to evidence that the economy probably expanded at a fairly lacklustre pace at the start of this year. 19th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q4) Q4’s disappointing GDP figures suggested that the Norwegian economy is still in a reasonably fragile state. Accordingly, the Norges Bank risks derailing the recovery if it raises interest rates too... 18th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response E-Z Trade Balance (Dec.) & Spanish GDP (Q4) December’s healthy rise in euro-zone exports suggests that exporters are continuing to cope with the strong euro. But the cost has been a sharp squeeze in firms’ margins. This casts doubts on whether... 17th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Feb.) February’s fall in German ZEW investor sentiment is more bad news. But it probably reflects the euro-zone’s fiscal problems more than specific concerns about Germany. We still see the economy leading... 16th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) & Industrial Production (Dec.) The news that the euro-zone recovery lost what little momentum it had in Q4 will add to markets’ fears about the region. GDP rose by just 0.1% on the quarter after Q3’s 0.4% gain. Q4’s outturn was... 12th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Final PMI (Jan.) December’s euro-zone retail sales figures suggested that total consumer spending fell in Q4, adding to signs that the overall recovery lost pace. What’s more, January’s final PMI survey pointed to... 3rd February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Jan./Dec.) January’s flash euro-zone consumer prices figures further highlighted the distinct lack of inflation pressure in the region and offered hope that euro-zone consumers will escape the squeeze on... 29th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey & German Unemployment (Jan.) January’s improvement in the EC euro-zone consumer and business survey was somewhat reassuring after the weaker tone of some of the recent other surveys. But we will need to see a sharper rise in... 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Consumer Prices (1st Est. Jan.) January’s fall in German consumer price inflation confirmed that households’ real incomes are being squeezed by much less than those elsewhere by rising prices. And inflation looks set to remain very... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) & French Consumer Spending (Dec.) January’s sharper than expected increase in German Ifo business sentiment came as a relief after the deterioration in some other surveys lately. The rise in the composite Business Climate Index, from... 26th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) January’s small fall in the euro-zone composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) supports the message from Tuesday’s ZEW survey that the recovery might be losing momentum. 21st January 2010 · 1 min read
