Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) The rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in April suggests that the services sector rebound from the Covid restrictions earlier in the year is offsetting weakness in the manufacturing sector. But with... 22nd April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The rise in consumer confidence in April was slightly better than expected. Nevertheless, confidence is still very low and points to household spending falling in April. That’s consistent with our... 21st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Mar.) Headline inflation rose to 7.4% in March and further increases are likely. This will put a big dent in consumer spending, so we think that 2022 will be a year of stagflation for the euro-zone. 21st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Mar.) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in March is likely to give more ammunition to the hawks in the Riksbank, and lends support to our view that the Bank will start to raise the... 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Final HICP (March) and ZEW (April) Final inflation data for Germany in March and the first survey of economic sentiment for April underline the acute problems which the German economy now faces. Energy inflation and underlying price... 12th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Mar.) Although headline and core inflation came in below expectations in March, underlying price pressures are likely to push both measures up a bit in the coming months. Meanwhile, the Norges Bank is more... 11th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales & German Industrial Production (Feb.) The small increases in euro-zone retail sales and German industrial production suggest that economic activity was growing at a modest pace in February. With much higher energy prices now weighing on... 7th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Mar.) March’s final euro-zone PMI surveys confirmed that output expectations fell sharply, with Germany experiencing the biggest drop. Meanwhile, price pressures remain intense across the currency union... 5th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Mar.) With euro-zone inflation rising even further above the ECB’s forecast, and likely to remain very high for the rest of the year, we think it won’t be long before the Bank starts raising interest rates. 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Mar.) Swiss inflation rose further above the SNB’s definition of price stability in March, and higher commodity prices and continued supply problems will keep it there for most of this year. Given the... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Feb.) The euro-zone unemployment rate edged down yet again in February, to a record low of 6.8%. There is little sign yet that this is feeding through to higher wages. But labour market conditions are set... 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (March) After a further huge jump in March, German inflation is likely to average at least 7% this year, and there are plenty of upside risks, not least the threat of power shortages. With price pressures... 30th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Mar.) The European Commission business and consumer survey for March is consistent with our view that economic growth will be slower than most anticipate this year while inflation will overshoot... 30th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (March) March’s Ifo business survey provides further evidence that Germany is heading for a sharp slowdown as the war in Ukraine and sky-high energy prices cause manufacturing output to contract. However, we... 25th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) March’s euro-zone PMI survey is consistent with our view that the economy will grow more slowly than most anticipate this year, while inflation will overshoot expectations. Commodities Drop-In (24... 24th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The huge fall in consumer confidence in March suggests that consumption may have contracted as the war in Ukraine and higher energy prices reduced households’ willingness and ability to spend. In turn... 23rd March 2022 · 2 mins read
