Europe Data Response Germany and Spain Flash Inflation (Jun.) The fall in inflation in Germany and the increase in Spain in June largely reflect temporary factors and will not alter the consensus view at the ECB that interest rates need to be increased quite... 29th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (June) The decline in EC Economic Sentiment Indicator in June was not as bad as we had feared and paints a more upbeat picture than the PMIs published last week. Nevertheless, the survey also pointed to... 29th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jun.) The renewed decline in the German Ifo Business Climate Index for June provides further evidence that weaker demand is starting to affect manufacturing output. With inflation set to remain high and the... 24th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June) June’s euro-zone PMI surveys showed a further slowdown in the services sector, while activity in the manufacturing sector now seems to be falling outright. With the price indices remaining extremely... 23rd June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (May) Final inflation data for May confirm that the headline and core rates both rose to record highs. The recent increases in gas and agricultural commodity prices will keep the headline rate higher than... 17th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Hourly Labour Costs (Q1) The acceleration in euro-zone wage growth at the start of the year is consistent with the timelier data already published and the message from pay negotiations. Against a backdrop of high inflation... 16th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) The increase in industrial output in April only partially reversed the decline in March and shows that the economic fallout from the Ukraine war is still holding back production. With survey data... 15th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (June) A second consecutive small monthly rise in the ZEW measure of German investor sentiment in June means it was still well below its level at the start of the year, and pointing to a recession. The... 14th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (May) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in May lends support to our forecast that the Riksbank will step up the pace of tightening. A 50bp hike in the policy rate now looks... 14th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (May) The stronger-than-expected increase in Norway’s core inflation rate in May lends support to our forecast that the Norges Bank will step up the pace of tightening later this month. A 50bp hike in the... 10th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) The upward revision to euro-zone GDP in Q1 was in large part down to the huge increase in Ireland, where the GDP data are notoriously unreliable. So the data aren’t as good as they look. And we still... 8th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (April) April’s increase in industrial output reversed only a fraction of the decline in March and shows that high energy prices, the Ukraine war and ongoing supply shortages are still having a major impact... 8th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Apr.) The euro-zone unemployment rate remained at a record low in April and the latest business surveys suggest that employment will continue to increase at a decent pace. With the labour market remaining... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (May) With headline and core inflation rising more than expected yet again, the case for exiting from negative interest rates promptly is now irrefutable. The ECB looks sure to confirm next week that it... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q1) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swiss GDP in Q1 provides a solid base for year-on-year growth rates throughout 2022. But with surveys heading south, and signs of stagnation in the euro-zone in... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany and Spain Flash Inflation (May) German and Spanish inflation data for May provide more ammunition for those who will argue at next week’s monetary policy meeting that the ECB should exit negative interest rates promptly, rather than... 30th May 2022 · 2 mins read
