Event Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2025 policy outlook 19th December 2024, 3:00PM GMT Join our senior economists for this dive into the final Fed, ECB and Bank of England decisions of 2024, and a look-ahead to see how these banks will calibrate monetary policy in the coming year...
Event Europe Drop-In: Germany's political crisis – Macro and market consequences 1731510000 Could the collapse of Germany’s ruling ‘traffic light’ coalition open the way to more effective governance for Europe’s largest economy?
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) The uptick in industrial production in April was mostly driven by strong growth in Ireland, with many other major euro-zone economies recording a fall in output. We expect industry to struggle this... 14th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (May) Headline inflation fell back into single digit territory in May, but the underlying rate came down a bit less than anticipated. This suggests there are upside risks to our forecast that the Riksbank... 14th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (May) Following May’s stronger-than-expected inflation data, a rate hike by the Norges Bank later this month looks nailed on. A 25bp move still seems most likely, but the risks are skewed towards a bigger... 9th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1, 2nd est.) News that GDP contracted in Q1 after all means that the euro-zone has already fallen into a technical recession. Given that the impact of policy tightening is yet to fully feed through, we suspect... 8th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Apr.) The disappointingly small rebound in German industrial production in April suggests that the boost from lower energy prices and improved global supply conditions at the beginning of the year has run... 7th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) Household consumption seems to have been subdued at the start of the second quarter as retail sales were unchanged in April. And continued low levels of household confidence suggest that consumption... 6th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Switzerland CPI (May.) Another sharp fall in headline and core inflation in May brought Switzerland within touching distance of the 0-2% range the SNB equates with price stability. But with recent comments from Chairman... 5th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (May) May’s decline in euro-zone core inflation to a four-month low left it below the published consensus forecast and was driven in part by lower services inflation. While further gradual declines in the... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany HICP (May) The fall in German headline inflation in May and signs that core price pressures eased echo the message from the inflation figures for France and Spain and supports the case for the ECB to limit... 31st May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (May) The larger-than-expected fall in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator in May is consistent with our view that the euro-zone will continue to stagnate in the second quarter. Meanwhile, firms’ selling... 30th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q1) The rebound in the Swiss economy in Q1 was due to robust domestic private sector demand, which more than offset a weakening in net trade. However, we expect the economy to slow over the remainder of... 30th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (May) Contradictory messages from the Ifo – which was very weak in May – and the Composite PMI mean the performance of the German economy in Q2 is uncertain. But regardless of how well the economy held up... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Resilient services sector keeping growth and price pressures strong The euro-zone Composite PMI fell slightly in May but is still consistent at face value with the economy expanding at a rapid pace in Q2. The survey also suggests that price pressures and the labour... 23rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (April) Data published today confirmed that both headline and core inflation were little changed in April and that while core goods inflation has begun to fall, services inflation reached an all-time high... 17th May 2023 · 2 mins read
