Europe Commercial Property Update Prospects for Turkish property still weak in the short-term The Turkish economy returned to growth in 2009Q2. Accordingly, we have nudged up our GDP forecasts for this year and next. Yet we are not convinced that these revisions will be enough to reverse the... 18th September 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone commercial property still looks pricey relative to equities The stock market rally has pushed the equity dividend yield down, making euro-zone commercial property look more attractive relative to equities, on one measure at least. However, the spread of the... 15th September 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Why have Polish industrial rental values been so resilient? Several factors have contributed to the resilience of industrial rental values in Poland. But downward pressure on Polish industrial rents continues to build and we do not think that more substantial... 11th September 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What has happened to industrial yields in Iberia? Industrial yields in Spain and Portugal moved out sharply in the first half of 2009. This is not surprising given the outlook for rental values in these economies as the recession bites. We expect... 3rd September 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Polish expansion will be too weak to support rental values GDP data released late last week, suggest that the Polish economy may avoid recession this year. That suggests that the risks to our forecasts for a 45% peak-to-trough fall in capital values may now... 1st September 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will confident consumers protect Italian retail market rents? The latest survey data from the ISAE show that Italian household confidence rose for the fifth consecutive month in August. On the face of it, this is encouraging news for the Italian retail... 27th August 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German occupier outlook weak despite growth in the economy The outlook for the German occupier market remains weak, despite the fact that the economy grew in Q2. We think that the labour market, which has held up well to date, could weaken in the second half... 25th August 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris further through the office rental value correction Paris has been among those Western European cities which have seen the sharpest declines in office rental values to date. However, we do not think that Paris has suffered disproportionately. Rather... 21st August 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Car scrappage schemes – a temporary support for occupier demand? Government incentive schemes to boost new car demand have, to date, been very successful. The surge in new car registrations in Europe should support occupier demand for industrial and logistics space... 13th August 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Expectation of more job losses points to falling office rents Recession in the European economy is hitting the labour market hard. Recent survey data from the European Commission show that employment intentions in the service sector may be turning a corner, but... 12th August 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update 2009Q2 RICS survey: too gloomy on Poland and Czech Republic? The most recent edition of the RICS global commercial property survey highlights the severe occupier market downturn in emerging Europe. But while we think that the overall sentiment of the survey is... 6th August 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Currency depreciation adds to emerging European rental downturn Headline rental values in emerging European commercial property markets have been under downward pressure from both weak occupier demand amid the global economic downturn, and from currency... 4th August 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update 2009Q2 RICS survey points to stabilising investment markets The latest global property survey from the RICS, released earlier this week, adds to the mounting, but tentative, evidence that investor demand for European commercial property could be stabilising... 30th July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weak lending to restrain investment market recovery Today’s bank lending survey from the ECB, suggests that there is little imminent prospect of an end to the tightening in credit availability and lending criteria for euro-zone businesses. For property... 29th July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone yields stabilise in Q2, but unlikely to have peaked Recent data show yields stabilised in most euro-zone office and retail markets in 2009Q2. While there are reasons to believe this may be the peak for yields, we are sceptical. Investor demand has... 23rd July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Romania and Hungary – short-term pain, long-term gain? Property investors’ appetite for emerging European markets is low and is unlikely to recover for the foreseeable future. For now, however, stronger economic fundamentals and relatively low risk of... 21st July 2009 · 1 min read
