Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone PMIs suggest rental values will not stabilise this year June’s flash PMIs for the euro-zone showed a modest improvement compared to May, largely driven by a rise in the manufacturing index. Falls in the service sector index, however, suggest that occupier... 24th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Emerging Europe rental prospects still best in Poland and Czech Rep We have recently nudged up our economic growth forecasts for Poland and the Czech Republic. However, our revisions still leave growth well below trend, which will do little to boost occupier demand... 18th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Poor labour market data emphasise weak outlook for rental values The rate of decline in euro-zone employment accelerated sharply in the first three months of 2009 and, although survey measures of employment intentions have picked up a little, further significant... 16th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Were rental value falls a sign of things to come in Russia? Developments in the commercial property market normally tend to follow developments in the real economy with a lag. But with hindsight, it seems that the devastating falls in rental values reported in... 12th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Do office and retail property share a common fair-value benchmark? One simple assumption that we have employed to date in our analysis of European commercial property markets is that, in any given market, the fair-value property/bond yield spread for office and... 11th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone prime office yield convergence: a temporary phase? Since mid-2007, the yield gap for prime office property in five of the euro-zone’s larger office markets has narrowed sharply. To us, this convergence suggests that, to date, investors have not placed... 5th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Why has Swiss commercial property been relatively resilient? To date, capital values in Switzerland have held up better than in most other European markets. This seems consistent with the fact that Swiss property did not become significantly overvalued during... 2nd June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dutch capital values unlikely to fall as sharp as RICS survey suggests The recent RICS Global Commercial Property Survey suggests that, within Europe, the Netherlands will see the sharpest falls in capital values over the next few months. With property yields already at... 28th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fundamentals for French retail property are still relatively strong According to Agents’ reports, prime retail rental values have yet to fall in France. While this is far from unique within the euro-zone, recent consumer confidence and retail sales data show the... 21st May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update First signs of improving investment markets in Western Europe? The latest RICS snapshot of global property markets offered some tentative hope that the pace of the correction in Western Europe might soon begin to moderate as improving investor demand helps to put... 19th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Latest GDP data do not alter commercial property outlook There was nothing in the latest euro-zone GDP releases to change materially our commercial property forecasts. If anything, however, the figures raised most concerns about the German property market... 15th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have Norwegian property yields peaked? In the early stages of the correction, property yields in Oslo saw some of the largest rises of any European city. But the rate of increase slowed sharply in 2009Q1. However, it is too soon to... 8th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Falls in Spanish rental values are not just a temporary phase Dublin aside, prime commercial property rental values have fallen further in Barcelona and Madrid than in any other major euro-zone city. That seems consistent with the dramatic rise in Spanish... 28th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property equities support relative optimism on France & Netherlands Real estate equity markets currently appear to be anticipating that commercial property capital values will fare worse in Germany and Italy this year than in France and the Netherlands. Those broad... 24th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Sharp interest rate cuts won’t help Turkish commercial property The Central Bank of Turkey’s most recent interest rate cut was the second in a row to surprise markets in its scale (75bps, to 9.75% on 16th April). However, unexpectedly sharp rate cuts do not mean... 20th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Resilience of German property yields at odds with the macro outlook To date, German property yields have proved remarkably resilient to the forces pushing property yields sharply higher in the rest of Europe. But, in our view, German property yields do not reflect the... 17th April 2009 · 1 min read
