Europe Commercial Property Update Are we too optimistic about the outlook for Swiss industrial rents? Switzerland does not seem to be awash with vacant industrial property, so the risks of a slump in rental values in this sector over the next year or two are low. But the looming euro-zone recession... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Spanish retail yields especially vulnerable to a correction? In recent years, the spread between Spanish retail and office yields has switched from positive to negative. This is typical in other countries and also squares with the long-run outperformance by... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Warsaw office rents vulnerable to a renewed euro-zone recession? The strength of Warsaw’s office occupier market over the past couple of years suggests that the large and increasingly speculative development pipeline is not a risk to the rental outlook. However, a... 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Clouds form over the Swedish retail market Q3’s plunge in Swedish consumer spending suggests that the outlook for the retail property market has deteriorated. Nevertheless, the low retail vacancy rate in Stockholm, together with strong demand... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Amsterdam retail rental outperformance won’t last Retail rental value growth in Amsterdam over the past year has been strong relative to other euro-zone markets and also relative to the office sector. In our view, there is little justification for... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Which sector might fare worst from the looming Italian recession? The prospect of a renewed recession in Italy is likely to mean that in each of the next two years all of the main commercial property sectors will see capital value falls. But the weak outlook for... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Czech industrial market outlook darkens, but further rent falls unlikely The surge in the Czech industrial development pipeline has coincided with a marked softening in the occupier demand outlook. But we do not think that the vacancy rate will return to 2009’s highs... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is the drop in occupier market sentiment a sign of things to come? The weakening in sentiment towards European property markets revealed in the latest RICS survey is unlikely to be temporary. To our minds, if anything, it highlights the downside risks to consensus... 4th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fresh recession in Hungary set to undermine rental values We have recently downgraded our forecasts for the Hungarian economy and now expect GDP to contract by about 0.5% in 2012. This is unlikely to drive a renewed slump in commercial property rental values... 2nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update End is in sight for the rally in Moscow property yields Recent declines in Moscow commercial property yields have been steeper than we had expected. Even so, there are now signs that investment demand is softening. If we are right that the economy will... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Stability of Spanish office capital values won’t last much longer The stability of Spanish office capital values over the past two years does not preclude a second leg to the downturn. If anything, the prospects for office occupier demand and rental values have... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will Czech retail property remain in vogue? Record levels of commercial property investment in the Czech Republic in Q3 2011 were driven by the retail sector. But retail property in the Czech Republic is starting to look expensive compared to... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we too downbeat on office rent prospects in Germany and Geneva? Survey evidence suggests that the main German cities, as well as Geneva and Moscow, are the current, preferred destinations for firms looking to expand into new markets. Yet while this points to a... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Ireland's strong economic growth has yet to revive occupier demand Ireland’s robust rebound in economic output so far this year does not appear to have meaningfully improved the health of Dublin’s commercial property occupier markets. Although rents may now have... 13th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German industrial property looks vulnerable to a shift in sentiment For now, the risks of a marked fall in prime industrial rental values in Germany look low, despite the recent downbeat industrial data. But the comparatively low level of industrial yields in Germany... 8th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Which markets are most at risk from excess retail supply? Yesterday’s retail sales data showed that domestic demand is weakening across most of Europe. And there is little reason to expect the pace of household spending to improve in 2012. Against that... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
