Global Economics Update The implications of US vehicle tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are... 27th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The beginning of the end of US exceptionalism? While US equity outperformance could reassert itself in the near term if concerns about US growth waned and enthusiasm about AI returned, we suspect that the longer-run story is brighter for equities... 25th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update German yields, stocks, and the euro surge – what next? In this Update, we put into context the recent surges in Bund yields, German equities, and the euro that have been triggered by expectations of a significant loosening of fiscal policy in Europe’s... 6th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: Is US equities exceptionalism dead? 1741795200 The recent underperformance of US equities marks a notable shift in the global market environment – but is this just a temporary state of affairs or the new order of things?&n
Global Economics Update Is the US bloc splintering? The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union... 4th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Equities Update A new dawn for China's stock market? The near-term picture for China’s equities looks brighter than we’d previously thought, and we’re revising up our forecasts for them significantly. But, we still think they will underperform those in... 28th February 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany: what to expect on election night and beyond Germany’s next government looks set to cut taxes and, if the parliamentary maths allow, reform the constitutional fiscal rule. It is also likely to be firmer in its support for Ukraine even as support... 20th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Equities Update The S&P 500 in 2025: a five-figure fantasy? While our bullish year-end forecast of 7,000 for the S&P 500 assumes the index’s absolute valuation will approach its dotcom-era peak, that forecast is comparatively conservative based on relative... 20th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update Rising Treasury term premia and the stock-bond correlation Our base case is that Treasury term premia – and yields – rise only a little further. But we think disruptive US trade policy, among other things, poses a threat to that view and, relatedly, to... 14th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Equities Update Indian rupee and equities set for further weakness A slowdown in the economy, alongside an unfavourable external environment, have contributed to declines in the Indian stock market and the rupee. We continue to expect the stock market to decline... 12th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Equities Update Tariffs, the federal election, and German equities We expect equities in Germany to underperform those in other major developed markets in the coming year or so because German firms are more exposed to the increase in protectionism which appears to be... 11th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Equities Update UK equities may underperform despite tariff insulation The UK stock market appears to be riding high – the FTSE 100 has hit a record high. But local-currency returns from UK equities have been flattered by a weaker pound. In common-currency terms, UK... 6th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Equities Update The rally in bank stocks has room to run US bank stocks in the S&P 500 have generally outperformed their peers over the past year and the key factors driving this look set to persist in 2025. So, we think they will remain around the front of... 28th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What do we mean by geopolitical blocs? The Cold War was defined by geopolitical blocs – the Soviet or Eastern bloc against the Western bloc. Geopolitics retreated with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The period from the early-1990s to... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The AI rally has broadened Investors’ enthusiasm for AI appears to have supported an increasingly broad set of equities of late, even if much of the associated rise in market capitalisation remains concentrated in a few of the... 10th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for Japan’s financial markets We now think the 10-year JGB yield will rise further, the yen will make more ground against the US dollar, and Japan’s equities will struggle to make much headway (in yen terms). 2nd December 2024 · 3 mins read
