Energy Focus COVID-19 to hasten peak oil demand In this Focus, we argue that the medium-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on both global economic growth and consumer behaviour has brought forward “peak oil demand” to around 2030. As a result, we... 8th October 2020 · 19 mins read
Energy Focus Towards liberalisation in the global LNG market In our view, the scale of energy demand destruction caused by the coronavirus pandemic has made the liberalisation of the global LNG market start to look inevitable. While pressure has been mounting... 21st August 2020 · 23 mins read
Global Economics Focus Lasting blow to supply capacity is not inevitable It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government... 29th June 2020 · 28 mins read
Energy Focus Our new oil demand proxy points to higher prices Our new oil demand proxy provides a timely indication of the health of global oil demand, and lends insight into whether it is demand, or other factors, that is driving prices at any given time. We... 13th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Energy Focus Measuring the risk premium in the oil price The September attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia re-ignited discussion of the “risk premium” in the oil price. Since the risk premium is not directly observable, we have created a methodology... 31st October 2019 · 13 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Assessing the potential impact of a US-Iran war War with the US would cause a collapse in Iran’s economy that would directly knock around 0.3%-pts off global GDP – equal to the damage from the US-China trade war so far. More important to the rest... 20th September 2019 · 23 mins read
Energy Focus A US-Iran conflict would push oil prices above $150 Mounting geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have prompted fears of a full-blown military war in the Gulf region. The most important impact would clearly be the loss of life. From the... 11th July 2019 · 10 mins read
Energy Focus Is the sun setting on the oil market? Slowing economic growth and rapidly rising fuel efficiency, partly due to a surge in the number of electric vehicles, mean that growth in demand for oil will slow and eventually peak over the next... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Focus What can game theory tell us about OPEC’s decisions? Contrary to almost all expectations, compliance with OPEC’s output quotas has been good so far. However, game theory suggests that higher oil prices increase the pay-off from cheating on the deal... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Is the recent fall in oil prices a taste of things to come? Surging supply and slowing demand growth are likely to push the global market back into a small surplus in 2018 which should put further downward pressure on oil prices over the next two years... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Focus What can the oil market learn from coal’s demise? The dramatic rise in renewable power has led to a sharp reduction in demand for coal and, until recently at least, had pushed coal prices down by more than 50% since 2011. A rapid rise in alternative... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Focus What do advances in vehicle technology mean for oil demand? Advancements in fuel efficiency, an increasing number of electric vehicles and the introduction of automated vehicles should mean that demand for oil in developed countries peaks over the next decade... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Will the oil market rebalance in 2017? There are a number of risks which could see oil prices slump back below $40 per barrel in the first half of this year. However, our central forecast is that the prices of Brent and WTI will dip a... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Oil prices – how low can they go? There are a number of risks which could cause oil prices to slump to as low as $20 per barrel in the first half of this year. However, our central forecast is that the prices of Brent and WTI will... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Focus How much should the drop in oil prices boost demand? The rebound in oil prices over the last few months has vindicated our view that oil prices had fallen too far, even if they have bounced back a little more sharply than we had anticipated. We expect... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Are lower crude oil prices here to stay? The slump in oil prices over the last six months has vindicated the bearish view we have held for several years. Our central forecast is that the price of Brent will recover to $60 per barrel by the... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
