Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth nudges down in Q2 Emerging market (EM) export growth slowed a touch in Q2 and the early signs are that it weakened a little further at the start of the current quarter. However, the slowdown is very gradual – EM... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth to slow, but not collapse EM export growth ticked up in May, but the big picture is that the sharp acceleration caused by the rebound in global commodity prices over the past year or so is now behind us. We don’t expect EM... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Peak has passed for EM export growth Following a five-year high in March, EM export growth lost a little steam going into the second quarter. We expect growth will gradually slow over the coming months. 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth reaching its peak EM export growth reached a 5-year high in March, rounding off a strong quarter. We expect this is probably the peak but a healthy global environment means that the EM export recovery is likely to slow... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor A solid first quarter for EM exports EM export growth softened a little in February but we think this was due in large part to one-offs, including the timing of the Chinese New Year and the effects of 2016’s leap year dropping out of the... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export rebound not just a commodity price story EM export growth continued its strong start to the year buoyed in equal parts by the recovery in commodity prices after their precipitous falls a year previously and an improvement in underlying... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Strong start to the year for big EM exporters EM exports appear to have made a good start to the year, with shipments from China, Brazil and Korea all growing strongly in dollar terms in January. The recent improvement in EM exports hasn’t just... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Near-term recovery for EM export growth, but threats ahead EM export growth increased towards the end of 2016, but this was mainly due to base effects rather than strengthening demand. While a further pick-up is likely in the near term, EM export growth is... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports set for modest recovery in 2017 EM exports performed poorly in 2016, but the rate of contraction eased later in the year. We expect that things will get better in 2017, though growth will remain modest. 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Tepid recovery for EM trade as protectionist threats mount The year-on-year contraction in EM trade growth seen in recent years is easing as values stabilise. But trade growth will not return to the rapid rates seen before 2012. A move towards protectionism... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports recover as commodity prices stabilise South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell dramatically last month. The sharp fall in the measure of future conditions suggests that hopes of a swift improvement in the country’s economic and political... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports stumble, but recovery will continue We think that one-off disruptions explain most of the fall in EM exports in July. More timely data already suggest that EM export growth was stronger in August. 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor A pause, not a reversal, in recovery of EM exports The slightly faster decline in EM exports recorded in June compared to May was due to price and currency effects that should prove short-lived. The recovery will continue over the coming months. 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export slump gradually easing The decline of EM values slowed, in US$ terms, again in May. The volume of EM exports, which is more important from an economic standpoint, actually rose. 18th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor “Brexit” poses little risk to EM Trade South Africa’s April output figures suggest that, after a disastrous Q1, the economy improved a touch going into Q2. But the country will still struggle to avoid a technical recession. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export recovery continues The rate at which EM exports are declining slowed sharply in March. We expect that higher commodity prices and an improvement in China’s economy will see export values return to growth later this year... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
