Emerging Markets Trade Monitor US-China deal delays escalation, at least for now The ‘cease fire’ in the US-China trade war has reduced a risk for Asian EMs that are integrated into Chinese supply chains. But the potential fallout was always likely to be pretty small. The sharp... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM Exports: Stable for now, but headed for a slowdown EM export growth remained strong in September, and probably picked up in October. But we think that a combination of escalating tariffs, lower commodity prices, and weaker economic growth in developed... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor USMCA shows Trump can stand down, but headwinds build Agreements signed in recent weeks indicate that the US may be willing to de-escalate trade disputes in order to achieve face-saving deals. Elsewhere, growing economic headwinds suggest that EM export... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports: Weakness ahead EM exports have shrugged off trade tensions in recent months, but US tariffs due to take effect later this month will add to headwinds. Softer commodity prices and weaker global growth will also weigh... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports shrug off tariffs, but worrying signs ahead Early signs suggest that the first round of Washington’s tariffs on China had little effect on EM trade in July. Growing headwinds, however, suggest that export growth will slow in late 2018 and into... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Trump’s latest tariffs up the stakes for EMs The size of the Trump administration’s latest proposed tariffs on imports from China – and the fact that neither side seems willing to back down – suggests that we’re moving towards a stage where... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth already starting to slow The recent rise in global trade tensions comes at a time when EM export growth has already started to slow. Higher oil prices will provide a boost to export growth in value terms in the next few... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Early signs of an EM export slowdown The very latest trade figures show that EM export growth has already started to soften and the continued weakening of the survey data suggest that this slowdown will continue in the coming months. 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor US-China trade tensions: the supply chain impact on EMs The US tariffs on China announced last week will, if implemented, have knock on effects on other EMs though supply chains, particularly in parts of East Asia and in Chile. The impact of the measures... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor US tariff action on China would hit other EMs too Media reports suggest that the US is planning to impose more extensive tariffs on China. This could have a significant knock-on impact for a number of economies in Emerging Asia (Taiwan, Malaysia... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Surveys point to strong EM export growth in early-2018 Survey-based measures of manufacturers’ export expectations suggest that EM export volume growth is set to strengthen over the coming months. Growth in both EM export volumes and values will, however... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Signs of EM trade softening heading into 2018 Early data for December suggest that EM export growth finished 2017 on a slightly softer footing and support our view that trade growth will slow this year. 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Strong year for EM exports, but 2018 set to be softer 2017 was the first year since 2014 in which EM exports recorded positive growth. However, two of the key props to this year’s export recovery are likely to weaken over the coming quarters – meaning... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Trump still focusing on bilateral deficits EM exports look to have finished Q3 on a strong note, albeit with help from seasonal effects. Otherwise, a year on from Trump’s election, protectionist rhetoric is yet to result in material changes to... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth set to slow in Q4 EM exports look to have grown strongly in Q3, helped by a rise in commodity prices. However, this is unlikely to herald a return to the rapid rates of export growth seen at the beginning of 2017... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export slowdown to be very gradual Having slowed in Q2, emerging market (EM) export growth ticked up a little at the start of Q3. However, this is likely to be temporary and EM export growth is set to soften over the remainder of the... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
