Emerging Markets Trade Monitor The impact of Omicron on EM trade If the new Omicron variant leads to tighter containment measures across the world, that would probably prop up demand for pandemic-related goods to the benefit of Asian exporters. Meanwhile, oil... 30th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Recent shifts in EM trade balances likely to reverse The big increases in EM commodity producers’ trade balances this year are likely to go into reverse if, as we expect, the prices of energy and metals fall back. At the same time, the manufacturing... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Headwinds facing metals exporters It looks like EM exports rose further in August and, possibly, September too. And while we expect them to decline over the coming quarters, they will remain elevated. However, China’s property... 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM goods exports may have reached a turning point Having surged over the past year or so, EM exports appear to be peaking as final demand is levelling off and commodity prices are dropping back. That said, exports will likely remain at elevated... 23rd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM goods exports may have passed the peak After surging over the past year, the latest data provide signs that EM goods exports have now passed their peak. However, they are still likely to stay at elevated levels for some time yet. 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports may be peaking EM goods exports have surged in Q2. There are some early indications that EM exports will now come off their record highs, but they are still likely to stay at elevated levels throughout the rest of... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor A closer look at the EM export boom EM exports are set to hit a new high in Q2, which will help to support economic growth, particularly in East Asia where virus cases are hitting domestic economies. While EM exports are likely to come... 27th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Improved trade positions set to gradually unwind The broad-based improvement in EM goods trade balances over the past year is likely to unwind over the coming quarters as consumption patterns gradually normalise and oil prices recover further. But... 22nd April 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Recent EM export strength likely to fade EM exports have continued to rise sharply in recent months and this strength may persist for a little while yet. But the big tailwind to some of the Asian economies from strong demand for electronics... 24th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Microchip shortages: first thoughts on the trade impact A global shortage of semiconductors is disrupting auto production, and – among EMs – it could hit exports from Central Europe and Mexico in particular. But some of the lost revenue should be made up... 26th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Big gains in EM exports are behind us While we expect a swift recovery in developed economies over the course of this year, we doubt that this will come alongside a boom in EM goods exports. Instead, as global consumption patterns start... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Taking stock of the improvement in trade positions One striking observation from the latest EM goods trade data is that exports have continued to rebound faster than imports, causing trade positions to improve further. While some of these gains may... 11th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor How an effective vaccine might impact EM exports An effective vaccine rolled over the course of 2021-22 would probably result in weaker demand for COVID-19 related products and some consumer goods, removing a tailwind to exporters in parts of Asia... 12th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor The uneven EM export recovery At the aggregate level, EM exports continued to recover in August and September. But this masks a wide divergence in performance at a country level, which we expect to persist in the coming months. 27th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export recovery will be a long slog The rebound in EM exports continued in July, but further gains will be harder to come by from here. Indeed, the initial boost from re-opening economies is likely to fade and the slowing global... 17th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports facing greater headwinds EM goods exports rebounded reasonably strongly in June and July but, with the global recovery showing signs of losing momentum, further gains from here are likely to be slow-going. 19th August 2020 · 3 mins read
