Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Spate of financial crises avoided, but hangovers loom Most major EMs have managed to avoid acute balance of payments, banking sector and sovereign debt problems so far this year. But pockets of vulnerability remain. In particular, the risk of another... 4th September 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Coronavirus: the financial risks for EMs The coronavirus outbreak could expose financial vulnerabilities in China and other EMs if factory and other workplace closures are extended. Within China, property developers are particularly... 6th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Pockets of risk remain Economic and financial vulnerabilities are generally low across much of the emerging world, but there are a handful of weak links. Argentina’s sovereign debt vulnerabilities remain high and, whichever... 29th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Risks concentrated in the usual suspects Economic and financial vulnerabilities remain low across much of the emerging world. But banking sector vulnerabilities are high in Turkey and China. And we are now explicitly forecasting a sovereign... 24th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM currency vulnerabilities shifting In our Risk Monitor published this time last year, we warned about growing risk of crises in Turkey and Argentina. The likelihood of full-blown currency crises occurring in the emerging world now... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Sovereign debt risks building 2018 was marked by currency crises in Turkey and Argentina, but the risks of large currency adjustments elsewhere in the emerging world have diminished. Meanwhile, sovereign debt risks appear to be... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Turkey and Argentina not out of the woods The collapses in the Turkish lira and Argentine peso last quarter have caused bank and sovereign debt risks, respectively, to mount in those countries. Meanwhile, financial vulnerabilities are brewing... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM financial vulnerabilities look contained The currency crises that rocked Argentina and Turkey in May and June raised fears that they would presage similar problems in other EMs. The fact that these then failed to materialise once again... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Currency vulnerabilities building in a few EMs Financial risks remain low in the emerging world. However, since our last Financial Risks Monitor, currency vulnerabilities have increased in a handful of countries. 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Vulnerabilities linger in a handful of EMs Our indicators suggest that, while financial risks in EMs have diminished over the past couple of years, pockets of vulnerability exist in several countries including Turkey, Hong Kong and Singapore. 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Fed tightening unlikely to cause major problems for EMs Our proprietary indicator of EM financial risk remains close to a 13-year low, which should help to reassure anyone concerned about a spate of crises across the emerging world in 2017. In particular... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor China still towards the top of EM worry list Our CERI suggests that financial risks for the average EM are the lowest in over 20 years. Even so, there are pockets of vulnerability. The CERI is flashing warning signs in Egypt, Colombia, Venezuela... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial risks continue to build in China A continued build-up of private sector debt in China is increasing financial risks. We don’t expect the sharp rise in credit to cause imminent problems, but we are concerned about sustainability in... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Recent improvement in EM sentiment backed by fundamentals The risk of a systemic EM financial crisis remains low. Our CERI suggests that financial vulnerabilities across the emerging world are much smaller now than at the time of previous crises and have... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Most EMs well-placed to weather Fed tightening Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial risks in the emerging world in aggregate are low and there is little to suggest that the onset of Fed tightening will trigger an EM... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial risks still low in most Ems Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that, for all the recent talk of an “EM crisis”, financial risks in most of the emerging world are low. There is certainly nothing in the CERI to... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
