Emerging Markets Economics Update Manufacturing outperforming in more open EMs Our EM-wide manufacturing PMI edged down last month, but industry still appears to have ended 2013 stronger than it was in the third quarter of last year. At a regional level, activity accelerated in... 3rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What do China’s reforms mean for other EMs? The shift in China's growth model that has been signalled by its leadership would benefit many economies elsewhere in the emerging world while causing difficulties for others. Major commodity... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Elections in the "Fragile Five": threat or an opportunity? Each of the five countries that were the worst hit by the summer currency sell-off (the so-called “Fragile Five”) are due to hold important elections next year. In the short term, uncertainty ahead of... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRIC manufacturing recovery lags behind Manufacturing in the emerging world remains on course for a fairly strong final quarter of the year. Our EM-wide manufacturing PMI, based on data produced by Markit, is consistent with industrial... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Stepping back from the EM currency rollercoaster EM currencies have resumed their rollercoaster ride over the past couple of weeks – first weakening on the back of renewed expectations that the Fed might start to taper its asset purchases by the end... 19th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Exchange rates to frame EM monetary policy in near term Currency movements will continue to play a major part in determining emerging market (EM) monetary policy. Countries where currencies have weakened alongside large current account deficits - Brazil... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will benefit most from a US recovery? A raft of strong activity data from the US suggests that the recovery there is gaining momentum. We expect growth in the US to accelerate further over the coming quarters. The biggest beneficiaries in... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM bank funding carrying more risks We’ve voiced concern about the pace of credit growth in a number of EMs. Worryingly, the composition of banks’ funding appears to have deteriorated at the same time, most notably in Turkey, but also... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Easing food inflation to keep EM inflation pressures subdued Falling global food prices should keep food inflation subdued across much of the emerging world over the coming months. Emerging Europe and Latin America in particular are likely to see significant... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Further signs of improvement in EM manufacturing Manufacturing across the emerging world appears to have made a strong start to Q4. Our EM-wide PMI estimate, based on data produced by Markit, is consistent with a pick-up in industrial production... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Time for greater differentiation in EM growth stories Our view that the major BRIC emerging markets were heading for a period of permanently weaker growth looked bold when we set it out a little over a year ago, but it has now been adopted by the... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q4 2013) Consumer spending growth appears to have picked up in large parts of the emerging world over the past couple of quarters but Emerging Asia has bucked the trend and spending growth there has continued... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update External positions a concern not just for “BIITS” The currencies of the so-called “BIITS” (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa) have been singled out as being particularly vulnerable to a tightening of global monetary conditions. This... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why BRICs weakness is here to stay The IMF has downgraded its expectations for growth in the BRICS over the next couple of years, bringing its forecasts into line with our own. But while at face value the Fund expects growth to rebound... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US default would put familiar faces back in the firing line A default by the US government would be without precedent and the potential spillovers to emerging markets are unclear. Nonetheless, it seems likely that the same EMs that were hit during the summer... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery continues, but unevenly Our EM-wide PMI suggests that the recovery in EM manufacturing continued at the end of Q3. However, the improvement is uneven. The rebound was most prominent in Emerging Europe, helped by the... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
