Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the prospects for “frontier markets” After a stellar run over the past decade or so, growth across “frontier markets” as a whole is likely to slow over the next couple of years. But the moderation in aggregate growth will mask important... 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery falters Manufacturing across the emerging world appears to have taken another turn for the worse in the first quarter of this year. This was largely driven by a renewed downturn in the BRIC economies. By... 2nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Weaker domestic demand driving fragile five’s external positions At an aggregate level, the current account deficit of the “fragile five” (Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey) showed a welcome improvement towards the end of last year. But progress has... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A primer on frontier markets Having been the darling of international investors over the past couple of years, a number of “frontier markets” have been cast in a negative light recently. In this Update, we take a step back to... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China fears resurface The past few days have seen renewed fears of a hard landing in China ripple through EM financial markets. These fears are nothing new and have in fact resurfaced at a time when EM export growth to... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging European manufacturers lead the way Emerging market (EM) manufacturing appears to have lost some momentum last month. But while manufacturing PMIs have slumped in both Emerging Asia and Latin America, manufacturers in Emerging Europe... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update It’s the institutions, stupid The eruption of anti-government protests in several emerging economies over the past month has led many investors to add “political risk” to the lengthening list of reasons to be cautious on EMs. But... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for “frontier” currencies? “Frontier” currencies have been the hardest hit in the latest bout of EM financial market turmoil. Looking ahead, we think further exchange rate weakness is likely to be concentrated in those... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs highlight EM divergence Emerging market (EM) manufacturing appears to have slowed last month but, perhaps more importantly, there is a widening divergence between countries. Activity seems to be picking up in the more open... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Turkey & India likely to be the exception rather than the rule The decisions by Turkey and India yesterday to raise interest rates have inevitably led to speculation that market turbulence will force policymakers in other parts of the emerging world to follow... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Market turmoil underlines need for greater EM discrimination Market turbulence in Turkey, Ukraine and now Argentina has led to talk of a new crisis sweepingemerging markets (EMs). But the emerging world has become a far more diverse place over the pastdecade... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation likely to remain sticky in the “fragile five” The sharp falls in the currencies of the “fragile five” economies over the past half a year may cause import price inflation to rise over the next few months, particularly in Turkey and, to a lesser... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks loosen policy in spite of Fed tapering Despite concerns that the US Fed’s tapering of its asset purchases may force EM policymakers to hike interest rates, more EM central banks have loosened monetary policy over the past six months than... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q1 2014) EM consumer spending grew at its slowest pace since 2009 last year. However, the latest data suggest that spending has started to pick up in recent months and, while a significant upturn seems... 16th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we worry about rising levels of external debt? Most analysis of EM vulnerabilities to Fed tapering and the likelihood of tougher external financing conditions over the coming years has focussed on the size of a country’s current account deficit... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Four wildcards for 2014 Our central forecast is for another year of lacklustre growth in the emerging world in 2014. But, as always, there are risks to our forecast - both on the upside and downside. Most attention has... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
