Emerging Markets Economics Update Credit bubbles deflate – but at the cost of weaker growth There are encouraging signs that the credit bubbles that had been building in a handful of major EMs are now deflating. But this process has only just begun – and the modest slowdown in credit that we... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q4 2014) Having slowed sharply in the first half of the year, consumer spending across the emerging world has continued to weaken in recent months. Among the regions, Emerging Asia is the only place where... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Export-oriented manufacturers faring well October’s PMI data suggest that EM manufacturing growth stabilised last month. Some of the smaller, export-driven EMs, particularly those in Central Europe as well as Mexico, areperforming well. But... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The end of QE and what it means for emerging markets Most of the emerging world should take the end of QE3 in its stride. The link between QE and capital flows to EMs has often been exaggerated. And while some EMs look vulnerable as US rates move up, it... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US recovery not helping all EMs Although the US economy has emerged as a bright spot of the uneven global recovery, its imports from EM economies have not picked up anywhere near as much as would have been expected based on past... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Cheaper commodities to allow rates to stay lower for longer We estimate that the recent fall in commodity prices could knock 1%-pt off Emerging Market (EM) inflation over the coming months. With slower economic growth set to keep a lid on core inflation in... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The winners and losers from lower oil prices In simple terms, the big winners from the recent drop in oil prices will be those EMs with large energy import bills, while the big losers will be the major oil exporters. But in reality the situation... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRIC economies the main drag on EM manufacturing September’s manufacturing PMI data suggest that the sector has lost some steam across the emerging world. The recent weakness has been largely concentrated in the BRIC economies, although there were... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Prospects for EM currencies differ despite broad sell-off The sell-off in emerging market currencies so far this month has been broad-based, but we expect investors to become more selective soon. We think a number of currencies will probably rebound, while... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lower oil prices are a problem for Lat Am, not the Gulf Major oil producers in the Gulf stand to lose the most in absolute terms from the recent fall in prices, but conservative management of the oil sector means that the region will simply save less. By... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising US Treasury yields would not slow EM growth Concerns that the policy tightening implied by the latest Fed forecasts would eventually lead to higher US Treasury yields and hinder EM growth are probably misplaced. A handful of EMs arevulnerable... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Towards a more nuanced view on EM rates We are often asked whether the next big move in EM interest rates will be up or down, but in truth the sheer diversity of the economies within the emerging world renders any “one-size-fits-all” rule... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Recent EM currency falls partly a result of euro weakness There are good reasons to think that some EM currencies remain exposed to market turbulence as we move towards the first interest rate hike in the US. However, suggestions that the recent falls in EM... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening and EM vulnerabilities: a stock-take A handful of EMs – mainly in Asia – have taken steps to reduce their external vulnerabilities in the wake of last year’s “Taper Tantrum”. But these countries are the exception rather than the rule... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Export-focused EM manufacturers are outperforming August’s PMI data from the emerging world were something of a mixed bag. But one theme that stands out is that most export-oriented manufacturing economies are performing relatively well at the moment... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update An anatomy of the EM slowdown Despite the recent attention given to the EM slowdown, it actually began back in 2010, and growth has been stuck at a sluggish rate for the last two years. The BRIC economies account for much of the... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
