Emerging Markets Economics Update Time for greater differentiation in EM growth stories Our view that the major BRIC emerging markets were heading for a period of permanently weaker growth looked bold when we set it out a little over a year ago, but it has now been adopted by the... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q4 2013) Consumer spending growth appears to have picked up in large parts of the emerging world over the past couple of quarters but Emerging Asia has bucked the trend and spending growth there has continued... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update External positions a concern not just for “BIITS” The currencies of the so-called “BIITS” (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa) have been singled out as being particularly vulnerable to a tightening of global monetary conditions. This... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why BRICs weakness is here to stay The IMF has downgraded its expectations for growth in the BRICS over the next couple of years, bringing its forecasts into line with our own. But while at face value the Fund expects growth to rebound... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US default would put familiar faces back in the firing line A default by the US government would be without precedent and the potential spillovers to emerging markets are unclear. Nonetheless, it seems likely that the same EMs that were hit during the summer... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery continues, but unevenly Our EM-wide PMI suggests that the recovery in EM manufacturing continued at the end of Q3. However, the improvement is uneven. The rebound was most prominent in Emerging Europe, helped by the... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Quick-fire reforms won’t prevent renewed taper-turbulence Suggestions that policymakers in troubled emerging markets (EM) now have a window of opportunity to reduce external vulnerabilities before the Fed begins to taper miss the point that these countries’... 27th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A reprieve for troubled EMs, but fundamental problems persist The Fed’s decision yesterday not to taper its asset purchases just yet provides some breathing room for the more troubled emerging economies. But their structural problems remain and uncertainty about... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The economic impact of Fed tapering revisited We expect the Fed to announce a small reduction in its asset purchases at the conclusion of today’s FOMC meeting. In this Update we revisit the implications for EMs and explain why, despite the market... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM policymakers step back from foreign exchange intervention One of the more surprising features of August’s EM currency sell-off is how little policymakers in the worst-affected countries intervened in foreign exchange markets to try to stop it. In the case of... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI signals modest improvement in manufacturing Our EM-wide PMI suggests that emerging market manufacturing improved a little last month. The recovery in the euro-zone in recent months appears to have boosted external demand, particularly in... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRIC GDP growth propped up by Brazil rebound in Q2 At an aggregate level, the second quarter GDP data suggest that the BRIC economies held up relatively well in Q2. However, this was largely due to a surprisingly strong rebound in Brazil. In the other... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we still worry about EM currency crises? Improved fundamentals mean that currency crises pose a much smaller risk to Emerging Markets now than in the past. But it would be unwise to assume that the coast is therefore clear for the emerging... 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three questions (and answers) about the EM currency sell-off The renewed sell-off in EM currencies has cast a fresh spotlight on vulnerabilities in the emerging world. In this Update we answer three key questions that have been raised by recent market moves. 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs likely to tread carefully with energy subsidy reform High global energy prices have contributed to rising subsidy spending across much of the emerging world. Some EMs have already started to cut back on subsidies. But fears of inflation and civil unrest... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI falls to four-year low Our EM-wide PMI estimate suggests that conditions in emerging market manufacturing are now the weakest they have been since early 2009. 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read