Emerging Markets Economics Update The EM debt problem revisited The past few weeks have seen increased awareness of potential debt problems brewing in the emerging world. In general, debt burdens are lower and more manageable in most EMs than in the past. But... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q4 2015) Lower commodity prices have continued to weigh on consumption in commodity-exporting EMs. Indeed, there are signs that even in those economies where spending had previously held up reasonably well... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that EM capital outflows remained large in October, but they did at least decline from September. This should help to soothe concerns (overstated in our view) about an... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Signs of stabilisation in EM manufacturing October’s manufacturing PMIs, published today, contain early signs that the worst may finally be over for manufacturers across the EM world. The headline index improved both in key large EMs, such as... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM rates to follow divergent paths The shift towards looser monetary policy in the emerging world earlier this year is over and, with the first rate hike in the US inching nearer, we think that many EMs are likely to tighten policy... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that over a quarter of a trillion dollars flowed out of EMs in the third quarter. This was largely due to China, although there are signs that the pace of capital... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How we compare with the IMF The IMF downgraded its forecasts for emerging market (EM) growth in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO). While we agree with the IMF that EM growth should rebound next year, we think the IMF has... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM Manufacturing slows further September’s PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world weakened further last month, with export orders particularly subdued. But in the EMs that have been in the spotlight... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM debt: Where do the risks lie? The decision by S&P to downgrade Brazil’s sovereign debt rating to junk last week has refocused attention on EM debt burdens. As it happens, we have been warned about rising debt levels in Brazil for... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update In search of bright spots With good news thin on the ground in the emerging world, it’s reassuring that there are at least a few emerging markets (EMs) where growth is holding up well. Most notably, the economies of Central... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Another look at the EM export slowdown Much of the gloom currently hanging over the EM world is warranted, but there are reasons to think that the slump in exports, at least, will start to reverse toward the end of this year. That said... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Talk of EM capital controls is overdone Despite concerns in some quarters, EM policymakers are unlikely to introduce capital controls. Many EMs are dependent on capital inflows – which capital controls would discourage – and many are likely... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2015) Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that total capital outflows from EMs increased in August to their highest level since the global financial crisis. This was overwhelmingly due to flows out of China. By... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth now not much faster than DM growth On some measures, the slowdown in emerging markets (EMs) in the second quarter of this year meansthat EM growth is now not much faster than developed market (DM) growth. 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Outlook for EM manufacturers deteriorates further August’s PMIs, published earlier today, paint a gloomy picture of the health of the emerging world.Conditions in manufacturing appear to have deteriorated further across a wide swath of EMs last month... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will policymakers respond to the market rout? China’s interest rate cut has helped to stem the panic that has gripped emerging markets in recent days, but it has also raised the obvious question about whether other EMs may follow suit. We doubt... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
