Emerging Markets Economics Update Grexit, the euro-crisis and the risks for EMs Beyond a handful of economies in Emerging Europe, the direct links between Greece and the rest of the emerging world are limited. What matters for most EMs is not so much the crisis in Greece itself... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening and EMs: risks revisited Yesterday’s statement by US Fed officials suggests that the FOMC is still on course to raise interest rates at September’s meeting. EM financial markets have taken this in their stride today and... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Oil windfall felt unevenly across EMs The fall in oil prices hasn’t so far been the boon for household spending in the emerging world that might have been expected, but it does appear to have contributed to stronger private consumption in... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMIs point to modest signs of improvement May’s manufacturing PMIs brought the first signs that the recent slump in manufacturing across the emerging world may be bottoming out. But there remain huge differences in performance. May’s... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of a grim Q1 First quarter GDP data that have so far been released by EMs have painted a pretty grim picture. In this Update we outline the three key themes that have emerged. 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update In search of winners from China’s rebalancing While it isn’t hard to find EMs that have been hurt by the slowdown in China, identifying winners from the positive aspects of its rebalancing – such as rapid growth in household spending – has proved... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q2 2015) The outlook for consumers has remained bright in large parts of the emerging world. In particular, consumption looks set to grow strongly in Central Europe and Emerging Asia over the coming months. In... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of the rise in EM bond yields The sell-off in the bond market in developed economies that grabbed the headlines over the past few weeks has also hit emerging markets but, so far at least, it does not provide much cause for concern... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM slowdown – why this time is different According to our GDP Tracker, EM growth has now fallen to a low last seen in the aftermath of the 2008-09 global financial crisis and, prior to that, the 2001-02 Argentine crisis. However, the causes... 11th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing weakens further as BRICs struggle Manufacturers across the emerging world appear to have continued to struggle in April, according to the latest PMI data. The slowdown was driven by weakness in the larger BRIC economies. Meanwhile... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The implications of a fall in EM dollar GDP There is a good chance that emerging market GDP, measured in dollar terms, will fall this year. But while this will weigh on investors’ dollar-denominated returns and could raise debt burdens in EMs... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s slowdown ripples across emerging world The effects of slower growth in China are already rippling across the emerging world. Indeed, while China’s economy is still growing by anywhere between 5–7% y/y depending on whose numbers you choose... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Window for policy loosening starting to close The wave of EM policy loosening that was triggered by the drop in oil prices at the end of last year is now reaching an end. However, it won't be until 2016 that most central banks move into... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A primer on EM dollar debts The recent strength of the dollar has thrust EM dollar debts into the spotlight, but data on the subject tend to be misunderstood. In this Update, we answer three questions that we have been asked by... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMIs point to further weakness The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world slowed further last month, driven mainly by weakness in some of the larger EM economies. By contrast, manufacturers in... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Currency weakness concentrated in low-saving EMs The hardest hit EM currencies over the course of this year have been those of the economies with low domestic savings rates. In the absence of reforms to address this frailty, the currencies of low... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read