Emerging Markets Economics Update Brexit, EMs and some common questions There are already some signs that following the initial shock of the Brexit vote, financial markets in EMs are starting to stabilise. In this Update, we outline four common questions that we have been... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Brexit vote rattles EMs The vote by the UK to leave the EU is already creating a flight to safety, with financial markets in EMs that have deeper and more liquid markets (Mexico), large current account deficits (South Africa... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q2 2016) Consumer spending in the emerging world finally looks to have turned a corner, thanks mainly to the bottoming-out of consumer recessions in Russia and Brazil. Spending in Central and Eastern Europe... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker shows that, having spiked at the start of this year, capital outflows from the emerging world have fallen to almost zero over the past couple of months. 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs well placed to weather a Brexit vote A vote by the UK to leave the EU would likely cause ripples rather than shockwaves in the emerging world. Trade ties with the UK are too small to have a material impact on EM exporters. And while a... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMIs lacklustre but stable While the manufacturing PMIs rose in most EMs last month, the general picture is still of growth remaining rather tepid by past standards. Central Europe remains the bright spot with the PMIs there... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How and where we differ from the consensus While we have consistently been among the most bearish forecasters of EMs over the past 4-5 years, the consensus has moved a long way in our direction over the past 12 months. Over the next year we... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM credit bubbles deflating, but risks building in China Credit growth is slowing in most of the economies we have previously identified as being at risk from a rapid build-up of private sector debt. The exception is China, where aggressive stimulus has... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from EMs declined sharply in April to a 10-month low of a little over $10bn. Outflows from China remained relatively low compared to the past year, while... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Thoughts on the rise of political risks in EMs From Brazil to Turkey, and Malaysia to South Africa, political risks are rising in emerging markets. The immediate triggers for unrest vary from country to country but there are some common themes –... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs, financial risks and the Fed With the Fed leaving the door open to another interest rate hike at June’s FOMC meeting, focus is starting to shift once again to financial vulnerabilities in EMs. A handful of countries are likely to... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry still in better shape than at start of the year There were sharp drops in the manufacturing PMIs in Brazil and India last month, which pulled down the aggregate EM figure. That said, in both countries this seems to reflect survey data catching up... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker suggests that total capital outflows from EMs eased further in March, reaching a nine-month low of just under $40bn. One reason is that the recent improvement in sentiment towards EMs has... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM oil producers unlikely to follow Angola to the IMF Angola last week became the first EM oil producer to turn to the IMF since oil prices started to fall in 2014. In the near-term, we don’t expect any others to follow suit. External risks in EM oil... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After the panic, what next for EMs? The sense of crisis that had been building in emerging markets has started to ease over the past month or so. So what next? In this Update we identify three risks – China, commodities and the threat... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM Manufacturing PMI rises to strongest in a year The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI in March to its highest level in a year adds to evidence that economic conditions across the emerging world are improving. The pick-up in the survey in China is... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
