Emerging Markets Economics Update Another look at the EM export slowdown Much of the gloom currently hanging over the EM world is warranted, but there are reasons to think that the slump in exports, at least, will start to reverse toward the end of this year. That said... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Talk of EM capital controls is overdone Despite concerns in some quarters, EM policymakers are unlikely to introduce capital controls. Many EMs are dependent on capital inflows – which capital controls would discourage – and many are likely... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2015) Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that total capital outflows from EMs increased in August to their highest level since the global financial crisis. This was overwhelmingly due to flows out of China. By... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth now not much faster than DM growth On some measures, the slowdown in emerging markets (EMs) in the second quarter of this year meansthat EM growth is now not much faster than developed market (DM) growth. 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Outlook for EM manufacturers deteriorates further August’s PMIs, published earlier today, paint a gloomy picture of the health of the emerging world.Conditions in manufacturing appear to have deteriorated further across a wide swath of EMs last month... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will policymakers respond to the market rout? China’s interest rate cut has helped to stem the panic that has gripped emerging markets in recent days, but it has also raised the obvious question about whether other EMs may follow suit. We doubt... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Making sense of the EM sell-off The rout in EM financial markets is generating increasingly hysterical headlines with many commentators seemingly fighting to outdo one another with predictions of doom and gloom for emerging... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After the falls: where next for EM currencies? The most recent declines in emerging market currencies have been driven by renewed falls in global commodity prices, China’s ‘devaluation’ of the renminbi, and worries about the prospect of monetary... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Spillovers to EMs from renminbi “devaluation” limited The decision by the People’s Bank of China to reduce the daily reference rate for the renminbi has generated plenty of headlines about spillovers to other EMs. In practice, however, we think that... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Winners and losers from the latest commodity collapse Of the major EMs, the biggest losers from the most recent fall in commodity prices have been Russia, Nigeria and Colombia, while the biggest winners have been Korea, India and Thailand. A similar... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q3 2015) The falls in commodity prices over the past year have caused consumer spending to slow in many commodity-exporting countries, with Russia and Brazil being hit particularly hard. Only consumers in... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing still subdued, Central Europe a bright spot July’s PMIs, published earlier today, showed that manufacturers across much of the emerging world struggled last month. The one bright spot was Central Europe, where the surveys improved in spite of... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update No need to fret about recent currency declines Most EM currencies have fallen over the past month, with many now at or close to multi-year lows against the US dollar. For the majority of countries the economic impact of recent currency weakness is... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Greece, China and the spillovers to EMs Recent events in China and Greece have generated plenty of gloomy headlines about the spillovers to emerging markets but so far the reaction in EM markets has been relatively limited. One reason could... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Slump in BRICs manufacturing bottoming out June’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that the slump in manufacturing across the BRIC economies may be bottoming out. It’s a mixed picture across smaller EMs, with those in Central Europe doing well, but... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A selection of our key calls This note summarises our key calls for emerging markets, emphasising where we differ from the consensus. Detailed projections (with specific numbers) are available in our regular publications on the... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read