Emerging Markets Economics Update Judging the fiscal risks from upcoming EM elections This year is a particularly busy one for elections in the emerging world, and these votes raise the risk of fiscal giveaways that worsen public debt dynamics. We think the risks are greatest in... 7th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs paint a mixed picture for EM industry The pick-up in the EM manufacturing PMI last month suggests that EM industry continued to strengthen in Q1. But while manufacturers have benefitted from strong demand in some economies (such as India... 1st March 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Headwinds to EM FX may persist in the short term Almost all major emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen against the US dollar so far this year, and we think they will remain under pressure until interest rate expectations in the US shift lower... 21st February 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Unpacking this year’s EM bond issuance bonanza EM sovereigns have issued a record amount of FX debt at the start of this year, capitalising on a window created by the decline in US Treasury yields since October. The issuance has been concentrated... 20th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Feb. 2024) Capital inflows into EM bonds and equities have fallen sharply since January after the Fed pushed back expectations of the timing of rate cuts. The good news is that current account deficits in EMs... 14th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Takeaways from the latest EM central bank meetings A key point that stands out from the raft of EM central bank decisions over the past couple of weeks is that policymakers are focussed much more on domestically-generated price pressures than the Fed... 12th February 2024 · 4 mins read
The future may be brighter for EM equities We think that EM equities will deliver better returns in the next couple of years than they have since the pandemic. Returns are likely to be lower than those we expect from US equities but similar to... 9th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Frontier sovereign debt distress still high While the overall incidence of sovereign debt distress in the emerging world has fallen back since last year, sovereign debt distress in frontier markets hasn’t. And, if anything, things have taken a... 7th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing isn't out of the woods While the emerging market manufacturing PMIs for January generally edged up, we think that weak global demand will weigh on EM industry over the coming months. The good new is that price pressures... 1st February 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will be next to cut interest rates? The EM monetary easing cycle began to broaden out late last year. Mexico’s central bank will probably be the next to cut rates later this quarter, and many Asian central banks will join the fray in... 29th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation threat from EM labour markets easing Wage growth remains soft across much of Emerging Asia, supporting our view that the region’s central banks will start monetary easing cycles sooner than most expect. Wage pressures have softened... 25th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan. 2024) Capital inflows into EM bond and equity markets have eased off a little recently, but they are still running around their highest level in over three years. And taken together with the narrowing of... 18th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM sovereign debt distress easing, but not over The incidence of sovereign debt distress has fallen sharply across the emerging world in the last few months, but that doesn’t rule out the possibility of default in a handful of EMs. Tunisia looks... 16th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Expect more EM growth divergence in 2024 Aggregate EM GDP growth is set to slow in 2024, but as important as the overall story is understanding the different cycles that are playing out at a country level. We think some countries which... 9th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update Clearing the air on the economics of pollution Given the thick smog covering parts of South Asia, forcing schools to shut down and disrupting activity, this Update takes a closer look into the economics of air pollution. In light of the... 8th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing ends the year on a soft note The emerging markets manufacturing PMIs for December were a mixed bag. The headline index stagnated at the aggregate EM level and remained below 50 in over half of the countries in our sample. Price... 2nd January 2024 · 2 mins read
