Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.) Aggregate Emerging Market net capital outflows slowed sharply in January. This appears to be partially due to large – but temporary – inflows into the Czech Republic. But it also reflected the... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM dollar debt – a primer The recent strength of the US dollar has prompted several questions from clients about dollar debt burdens in emerging economies. In this Update, we outline the key points and provide a comprehensive... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Few EMs at risk from a major drop in US FDI US foreign direct investment flows into most major EMs aren’t particularly large and a significant portion are concentrated in the mining and financial sectors. These are unlikely to be disrupted even... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to watch for in Trump’s first 100 days Within the realms of economic policy, two concerns in particular are likely to occupy both EM governments and investors in the early days of President Trump’s administration: the direct effects on EM... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec.) Total capital outflows from Emerging Markets (EMs) remained large at the end of last year. Portfolio inflows into EM bond and equity markets, however, remained resilient following the US election... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Who’s afraid of a strong dollar? The Mexican peso and the Turkish lira have come under further pressure over the past couple of days, but the more striking thing is how resilient other EM currencies have been in the face of a... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Unpacking “political risk” in EMs The tendency to bracket all EM political risk under the banner of “rising populism” conceals important nuances and prevents a proper understanding of the economic consequences of the risks that are... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US “border tax” and the implications for EM currencies The switch to a so-called “border adjustment” system of corporate tax that has been proposed by US House Republicans could in theory lead to a weakening of EM currencies against the dollar, but in... 4th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing ends 2016 on a strong note Manufacturing in the emerging world remained strong at the end of last year according to the latest PMIs. Conditions in China and Russia, in particular, continued to improve. That being said, the... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world reached a ten-month high of $75bn last month. This was driven mainly by an acceleration in outflows from China, but it seems that... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMI remains near two-year high The EM manufacturing PMI edged down in November, but still suggests that conditions in manufacturing sectors are much healthier than a few months ago. Emerging Europe, in particular, appears to have... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trump and the fallout for EMs in five key points We’ve written lots over the past two weeks about Donald Trump’s victory and the implications for EMs. While much remains uncertain, in this Update we draw out five early takeaways. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trumpflation, the dollar and EM balance sheets The jump in the dollar caused by the so-called “Trumpflation” trade is unlikely to cause widespread or systemic problems in the emerging world, but several EMs do look vulnerable. The most exposed are... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the post-Trump sell-off The sell-off in EM markets following Donald Trump’s victory appears to have been driven by a general rise in investor risk aversion, rather than specific concerns over a shift towards greater trade... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world declined a little last month, and were barely a third of the size seen earlier in the year. The sell-off in EM financial markets... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update First thoughts on the US election fallout The sell-off in EM financial markets in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the US election has been swift but policymakers in most countries will look through the initial volatility – only central... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
